- AUD/USD pulls back as US CPI report indicates core inflation steady at 3.2% YoY, dampening prospects for a 50-bps Fed rate cut.
- Money market futures now forecast an 85% likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut at the next Fed meeting.
- RBA Assistant Governor notes the Australian labor market is tight yet balanced, with the AUD poised for further US data releases this week.
The Australian Dollar dropped during the North American session after the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which witnessed an uptick in prices. Market participants that priced in a larger Federal Reserve rate cut trimmed their bets, sponsoring a leg-up in the US Dollar. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6627 after hitting a daily high of 0.6673.
AUD/USD falls to 0.6627 as rising US core inflation dims hopes for larger Fed rate cut
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that August’s headline inflation dipped from 2.9% to 2.6% YoY as expected. Still, the core, which excludes volatile items and is sought as a realistic inflation gauge, stalled at 3.2% YoY. In monthly figures, core CPI edged up from 0.2% to 0.3% while CPI stood at 0,2% MoM.
After the report, money market futures traders slashed the odds for 50 basis points (bps) cut to 15%, while chances for a 25-bps jumped to 85%, via data from the CME FedWatch Tool.
This underpinned the Greenback and weighed on the AUD/USD, which extended its losses to a daily low of 0.6622 before recovering some ground.
In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, held to minuscule gains of 0.02% at 10168.
Earlier in the Asian session, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter delivered hawkish-tilted remarks, saying the labor market remains tight relative to full employment, but has moved into better balance since late 2022. Hunted stated the economy is moving through a turning point.
What to watch?
The Aussie economic docket will be empty for the remainder of the week. On Thursday, the US schedule will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 7. On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is awaited.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD has dropped below the 50- and 100-day moving averages (DMAs) at 0.6667 and 0.6647, opening the door to challenge the 200-DMA at 0.6616. If sellers push prices below the latter, look for further losses. First, they need to crack 0.6600, and the next stop would be the August 15 low of 0.6560.
Conversely, if buyers stepped in and pushed prices above the current week’s peak of 0.6689, look for a test of 0.6700.
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.42% | -0.65% | -0.11% | 0.06% | 0.43% | 0.28% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.37% | -0.73% | -0.15% | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.23% | |
| GBP | -0.42% | -0.37% | -1.14% | -0.53% | -0.37% | 0.00% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | 0.65% | 0.73% | 1.14% | 0.57% | 0.71% | 1.08% | 0.94% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.53% | -0.57% | 0.16% | 0.53% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.37% | -0.71% | -0.16% | 0.30% | 0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.43% | -0.37% | -0.00% | -1.08% | -0.53% | -0.30% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.28% | -0.23% | 0.14% | -0.94% | -0.38% | -0.23% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD falls to multi-week lows near 1.1000 after US CPI data
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and declines to the 1.1000 area in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The data from the US showed that the core CPI rose 0.3% in August, surpassing the market expectation of 0.2% and supporting the USD.
GBP/USD remains under pressure, declines toward 1.3000
GBP/USD trades in negative territory below 1.3050 in the American session on Wednesday. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals and weighs on the pair after the latest data showed that the core CPI rose more than expected in August.
Gold reconquered $2,510, aims to retest record highs
Gold touches the top of its range and then falls back down to $2,500 after the release of US inflation data on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rebounds on stronger-than-forecast monthly core CPI print and drags XAU/USD lower.
Bitcoin holds $56,000 level as US ETFs record second consecutive day of inflows
Bitcoin (BTC) retraces slightly on Wednesday and approaches the critical support level of $56,000; if it holds, it might pave the way for further recovery. However, Wednesday’s upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could trigger volatility in the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Five Fundamentals for the week: Jittery markets fear the ECB, US inflation and more Premium
Is there still a chance? Investors hope for a 50-bps rate cut from the Fed but also fear a global recession is underway. The world's three largest economies, the US, China, and the eurozone, are set to rock global markets.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.