AUD/USD: Slight increase in downward momentum – UOB Group

There has been a slight increase in downward momentum; Australian Dollars (AUD) is expected to edge lower but is unlikely to reach 0.6315 vs the US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum has largely faded; AUD is likely to consolidate between 0.6280 and 0.6410 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Upward momentum has largely faded for AUD

24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, AUD rose to 0.6409 and then pulled back. Yesterday (Monday), we highlighted that 'the pullback appears corrective, and AUD is unlikely to weaken much further.' We expected AUD to 'trade in a 0.6355/0.6400 range.' AUD then traded in a lower range than expected (0.6345/0.6392), closing slightly lower by 0.16% at 0.6350. There has been a slight increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect AUD to edge lower, but any decline is unlikely to reach 0.6315. Resistance is at 0.6365, followed by 0.6380."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a positive AUD view since early this month. In our latest narrative from last Friday (21 Feb, spot at 0.6400), we indicated that AUD 'could advance further, potentially reaching 0.6455.' We added, 'only a breach of 0.6345 (‘strong support’ level) would suggest that AUD is not ready to advance to 0.6455.' Yesterday, AUD fell to a low of 0.6345. While our ‘strong support’ level has not been clearly breached, upward momentum has largely faded. AUD has entered a consolidation phase, and it is likely to trade between 0.6280 and 0.6410 for now."