AUD/USD: Risk for AUD shifts to the downside – UOB Group

The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, mostly likely between 0.6435 and 0.6475. In the longer run, risk for AUD has shifted to the downside; the 0.6380 level is expected to provide significant support, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The 0.6380 level is expected to provide significant support

24-HOUR VIEW: “After AUD plummeted to a low of 0.6399 two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that ‘the weakness in AUD could retest the 0.6400 level before stabilisation is likely.’ We added, ‘to keep the oversold momentum going, AUD must remain below 0.6460, with minor resistance at 0.6445.’ Our view did not turn out, as AUD traded in a 0.6422/.6455 range, closing at 0.6452. The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, most likely between 0.6435 and 0.6475.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our view for AUD to negative yesterday (05 Dec, spot at 0.6430), indicating that ‘the risk for AUD has shifted to the downside.’ However, we pointed out, ‘any decline is expected to face significant support at 0.6380.’ We also pointed out that ‘to sustain the increase in momentum, AUD must not break above the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.6490.’ There is no change in our view.”