AUD/USD retreats after hot labour market data from the US

At the time of writing the AUD/USD stands at the 0.6615 area, posting a 0.59% loss on the day. In that sense, the DXY index cleared losses as hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) strengthened the USD via rising US yields.

The Employment Change released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc showed that generally speaking, the US economy added 497K newly employed people in June, exceeding by far the expectations of 228K and accelerating from its previous figure of 278K. On the other hand, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending in June 30, increased as expected but came in slightly higher than the consensus at 248K vs the 245K expected. Other data showed that ISM Services PMI came in at 53.9 vs the 51 expected from its previous figure of 50.3.

As a reaction, US Treasury yields soared across the board following the data. The 2-year bond yield led the way, jumping to its highest level since 2007 at 5.08%. The 5 and 10-year rates also increased to 4.40% and 4.03%, respectively, showing more than 2.50% increases. Focus will now shift to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), expected to drop 225K from the previous 339K. In that sense, the outcome could provide further volatility in the bond market and the AUD/USD price dynamics.

It's worth mentioning that FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes revealed that some members considered appropriate hiking as a tight labor market would contribute to high inflation. That being said, a 25 basis point (bps) hike in July is priced in, while the odds of an additional hike stand around 40%.

AUD/USD Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the AUD/USD appears to be bearish in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points south, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands deep in negative territory, indicating that the bears are in command. In addition, traders should eye the 0.6700 area where the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages seem to be converging. 

In case of more downside, support levels are seen at 0.6600, 0.6585 and 0.6550. On the flip side, the mentioned 0.6700 stands as the main resistance to recover for the bull with next targets at 0.6730 and 0.6750.

AUD/USD Daily chart