AUD/USD rebounds from multi-month low, finds support ahead of 0.6500 mark


  • AUD/USD slumps to a multi-month low amid the Trump enthusiasm-led USD rally.
  • Fears of fresh tariffs and trade war with China further exert pressure on the Aussie. 
  • The RBA’s hawkish stance and the risk-on impulse help limit losses for the major.

The AUD/USD pair trims a part of heavy intraday losses and recovers around 70-75 pips from the vicinity of the 0.6500 psychological mark, or its lowest level since August 8 touched earlier this Wednesday. Spot prices, however, remain deep in negative territory through the first half of the European session and currently trade just below the 0.6600 mark, still down over 0.85% for the day.

The sharp intraday fall of over 130 pips for the AUD/USD pair was led by a strong pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand. In fact, the USD Index (DXY) shot to a four-month top after the US presidential election exit polls showed that Republican nominee Donald Trump is leading the race. Furthermore, Republicans are projected to take the majority of the House after securing the Senate. 

Meanwhile, a Trump presidency revives fears about the launch of fresh tariffs and a trade war with China, which further weighs on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). Moreover, deficit-spending concerns and bets for smaller rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) push the US Treasury bond yields higher, further underpinning the USD and exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. 

That said, the risk-on impulse – as depicted by a sharp rally in the US equity futures – prompts some profit-taking around the safe-haven Greenback. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance and signs that China's big stimulus push is helping improve business conditions limit losses for the Aussie, prompting intraday short-covering around the AUD/USD pair. 

It, however, remains to be seen if spot prices can build on momentum or if the attempted recovery is seen as a selling opportunity amid the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD finds support near 1.0700, looks to post large daily losses after Trump win

EUR/USD finds support near 1.0700, looks to post large daily losses after Trump win

EUR/USD trades deep in negative territory despite staging a modest rebound after finding support near 1.0700. The US Dollar preserves its strength as Republican nominee Donald Trump becomes the 47th president, while the improving risk mood helps the pair limit its losses.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD trades below 1.2900 as Trump victory boosts USD

GBP/USD trades below 1.2900 as Trump victory boosts USD

GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2900. The US Dollar outperforms its rivals and doesn't allow the pair to gain traction as Donald Trump completes his political comeback, becoming only the second US president to win a second, nonconsecutive term.

GBP/USD News
Gold pares losses, consolidates around $2,660

Gold pares losses, consolidates around $2,660

Gold remains under heavy bearish pressure and trades at a fresh multi-week low below $2,700 as markets react to Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rises more than 4% on the day, forcing XAU/USD to stretch lower.

Gold News
Bitcoin soars to a new all-time of $75,407 as Trump wins US presidential election

Bitcoin soars to a new all-time of $75,407 as Trump wins US presidential election

Bitcoin soared over 7% to a new all-time high of $75,407 on Wednesday as Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States, the candidate that was seen as more favorable for crypto markets due to his pro-crypto stances.

Read more
Trump wins: Tax cuts come with a cost

Trump wins: Tax cuts come with a cost

Donald Trump’s victory will ensure a lower tax environment that should boost sentiment and spending in the near term. However, promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will increasingly become headwinds through his presidential term.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures