Since the start of the year, AUD/USD has evolved in a tight horizontal range centred on 0.77 and capped at 0.80. Economists at Société Générale see this phase as only a pause in the uptrend.
RBA/Fed divergence on tapering
“Regarding monetary policy, we expect the RBA to start implementing tapering in 2H, and the first cash rate hike in 2023. This implies that the bond purchase programme should end in 2022. In contrast, the Fed should announce a tapering program before the year end, which we expect to begin in January 2022. The 10 yields differential is now almost flat, reflecting the AUD/USD range and the current monetary status quo. But earlier RBA tapering in the second part of the year should widen the yields spread and restart the AUD/USD bullish trend.”
“Australian GDP growth is now expected to reach 4.0% in 2022, against 3.3% previously. The ebbing COVID-19 pandemic (including smooth vaccine rollouts) and fiscal policy support continue to be the two main drivers of the recovery, which we believe should lead to the closing of output gap in 2023. All in all, solid growth prospects should help to secure future AUD gains towards 0.85.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0400 in quiet trading
EUR/USD trades marginally higher above 1.0400 in the second half of the day on Friday. The absence of fundamental drivers and thin trading conditions on the holiday-shortened week make it difficult for the pair to gather directional momentum.
GBP/USD recovers to 1.2550 area following earlier decline
GBP/USD regains its traction and trades in positive territory near 1.2550 after declining toward 1.2500 earlier in the day. Nevertheless, the cautious market mood limits the pair's upside as trading volumes remain low following the Christmas break.
Gold struggles to build on weekly gains, holds above $2,620
Gold enters a consolidation phase and trades below $2,630 on Friday after posting modest gains on Thursday. The risk-averse market atmosphere helps XAU/USD limit its losses as investors refrain from taking large positions heading into the end of the holiday-shortened week.
Bitcoin misses Santa rally even as on-chain metrics show signs of price recovery
Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $97,000 on Friday, erasing most of the gains from earlier this week, as the largest cryptocurrency missed the so-called Santa Claus rally, the increase in prices prior to and immediately following Christmas Day.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.