- AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Friday amid the emergence of some USD dip-buying.
- The overnight failure near the 100-day SMA and the technical setup favors bearish traders.
- A sustained strength and acceptance above the 0.6700 mark will negate the negative bias.
The AUD/USD pair fails to capitalize on the previous day's strong move-up to the 0.6700 neighborhood, or a two-week top and retreats from the vicinity of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. Spot prices extend the intraday descent through the first half of the European session on Friday and drop to the 0.6625-0.6620 region, or a fresh daily low amid a modest US Dollar (USD) strength.
Expectations that Trump's policies will spur economic growth, boost inflation and restrict the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to interest cut rates aggressively help the USD to stall the previous day's retracement slide from a four-month top. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The AUD/USD bulls, meanwhile, seem unaffected by the fact that China's Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) approved plans to increase the local debt ceiling. Even the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance earlier this week fails to lend support to the Aussie.
From a technical perspective, acceptance below the very important 200-day SMA will suggest that a short-covering rally from the lowest level since August 8 touched on Wednesday has run out of steam. Given that oscillators on the daily chart – though have been recovering – are still holding in negative territory, the subsequent fall could drag the AUD/USD pair to the 0.6600 mark en route to the 0.6555-0.6550 support zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 0.6515-0.6510 area, or the multi-month low before spot prices eventually drop to the next relevant support near the 0.6465-0.6460 region.
On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a sustained breakout above the 100-day SMA hurdle, currently pegged just ahead of the 0.6700 mark, before placing fresh bets. This is closely followed by the 50-day SMA, around the 0.6715-0.6820 area, above which the AUD/USD pair could climb beyond the 0.6750-0.6755 intermediate resistance and aim to reclaim the 0.6800 round figure. The subsequent move-up will suggest that the recent downfall has run its course and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains pressured below 1.0800, US data eyed
EUR/USD is trading under pressure below 1.0800 in European trading on Friday. A renewed US Dollar uptick and a cautious mood weigh on the pair, as traders digest the Trump win and the Fed rate cut ahead of the US preliminary Consumer Sentiment data for November.
GBP/USD holds lower ground near 1.2950 amid tepid risk sentiment
GBP/USD edges lower toward 1.2950 in the European session on Friday. The emergence of dip-buying in the US Dollar and a tepid risk tone undermine the pair. The BoE’s cautious rate cut could check the pair's downside as traders look to BoE-speak, US data for fresh incentives.
Gold price seems vulnerable while below $2,700 amid stronger USD, positive risk tone
Gold price drops to the $2,680 area during the first half of the European session on Friday and is pressured by a combination of factors. Hopes that Trump's policies would spur economic growth and inflation, to a larger extent, overshadow the Fed's dovish outlook, which, in turn, helps revive the USD demand.
Bitcoin touches new all-time high near $77,000 following Fed rate cut
Bitcoin price rallied and reached a new all-time high of $76,849 following the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut. Ethereum and Ripple followed suit and closed above their key resistance levels, hinting at a possible rally ahead.
Outlook for the markets under Trump 2.0
On November 5, the United States held presidential elections. Republican and former president Donald Trump won the elections surprisingly clearly. The Electoral College, which in fact elects the president, will meet on December 17, while the inauguration is scheduled for January 20, 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.