- AUD/USD retreats from intraday high, struggles to extend two-day uptrend.
- Steady RSI, looming bull cross on MACD and multi-day-old descending resistance line challenge Aussie buyers.
- AUD/USD bears need validation from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level; key DMA confluence adds to the upside filters.
AUD/USD takes offers to 0.6680 as it drops towards refreshing the intraday low of 0.6671 during early Thursday. In doing so, the Aussie pair prints the first daily loss in three as the bulls flirt with a downward-sloping resistance line from early February.
In addition to the six-week-old descending resistance line, sluggish RSI (14) and indecisive MACD signals also challenge the AUD/USD pair buyers unless the quote stays below the 0.6700 trend line resistance.
Even if the Aussie pair crosses the 0.6700 round figure, a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA, around 0.6770-75 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
In a case where the AUD/USD price remains firmer past 0.6775, the December 2022 high near 0.6895 and the 0.6900 round figure may act as the last defenses of the pair bears.
On the flip side, pullback remains elusive beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the risk-barometer pair’s upside from October 2022 to February 2023, close to 0.6655 by the press time.
Following that, the latest swing low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, respectively around 0.6565 and 0.6550 in that order, could probe the AUD/USD bears before giving them control.
Overall, AUD/USD is likely to witness a pullback as China data looms but the downside room appears limited.
AUD/USD: Daily chart
Trend: Pullback expected
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