|

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Divergence confluence sealed the deal for the bears

  • AUD/USD sinks below key hourly trendline support following series of multi time frame bearish divergences.
  • A downside target is now located at the -272% Fibonacci retracement of the current correction's range.

As per the prior analysisAUD/USD Price Analysis: Hidden bearish divergence into the Employment data, AUD/USD has taken the bearish route and the divergence has played a role. 

As illustrated ahead of the Employment report on Wednesday, the hidden bearish divergence was highlighted as follows:

AUD/USD hourly chart

It was explained that ''the hidden bearish divergence is something that traders should be aware of in case there is a short to the downside. 

The HBD will offer additional conviction to those seeking to short the Aussie should there be a disappointment in the data. 

0.7320 will be key in this regard as it is the last defence following a potential trendline support break and a break there opens risk to a significant downside continuation in the coming sessions.''

AUD/USD, live market

As illustrated, the price has fallen, respecting the levels of support on the way down. 

What is also important to note, on the lower time frames, we had a confluence with the hourly hidden bearish divergences, making for a powerful bearish trend with plenty of momentum as follows:

AUD/USD, hourly live chart

With the price below the bearish 50 EMA channel, there are bearish prospects from a restest of the Fibonacci ratios, as illustrated above as the price drifts higher in a gradual and decelerating correction. 

A downside target is located at the -272% Fibonacci retracement of the current correction's range near 0.7265.

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD revisits 1.1780, or daily lows

EUR/USD now comes under further selling pressure, breaking below the 1.1800 support to reach daily troughs on Thursday. The pair’s decline comes in response to a sudden bout of USD strength amid steady geopolitical tensions. Ealier in the day, the ECB’s Lagarde delivered cautious remarks, although the currency remained apathetic.

GBP/USD makes a U-turn, challenges 1.3500

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, putting the 1.3500 support to the test on Thursday. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold sticks to the bid bias, flirts with $5,200

Gold is now facing some downside pressure, hovering around the $5,170 region on Thursday. The precious metal adds to Wednesday’s optimism despite the Greenback trades in a firm fashion, although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep the yellow metal bid for now.

Stellar: Relief bounce fades as bearish undertone persists

Stellar is trading around $0.16 at the time of writing on Thursday after rebounding more than 8% in the previous day. Derivatives data paints a negative picture as XLM’s short bets hit a monthly high while Open Interest continues to decline.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Bitcoin steadies as traders eye US–Iran talks

Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing around $68,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after a 6.2% relief rally the previous day amid a broader downward trend.