AUD/USD Price Analysis: Consolidating after pull back from May 3 high

AUD/USD is trading in the 0.6610s on Monday as it continues its sideways consolidation after pulling back from its May 3 peak. 

Despite oscillating sideways for the last week, the pair is probably in a short-term uptrend, evidenced by the rising sequence of peaks and troughs since the April 19 lows.  

AUD/USD 4-hour Chart

Given the old saying that “the trend is your friend”, therefore, the odds favor AUD/USD going higher. 

AUD/USD has attempted but failed to break above the 0.6624 resistance level on several occasions. Nevertheless, a break would provide confirmation of further upside to the next target at the 0.6649 May 3 high. 

Assuming AUD/USD successfully breaks above 0.6624 it will probably result in a highly volatile move to the upside, since the level has been touched on multiple occasions which usually results in a strong move once broken. 

The next target higher would probably be at around 0.6680-90, generated by a possible Measured Move pattern that AUD/USD has formed since the April 19 lows. 

Measured Moves are like large zig-zags composed of three waves, labeled A, B and C. The general expectation is that wave C will be either the same length as A or a Fibonacci 0.681 of A. 

Wave C has already reached the Fibonacci 0.681 target at the May 3 highs, however, it could also achieve the target where C=A at 0.6690. 

A decisive break below the red trendline would be a bearish sign, suggesting a potential reversal of the trend. 

A decisive break would be one accompanied by a long red candle which closes near its low or three red candles in a row that break below the trendline.