|

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls still got skin in the game, eye 0.68 territories but bears lurk

  • AUD/USD rallies towards trendline resistance.
  • Bears could be lurking in the 0.68s as W-formation is a pull. 

AUD/USD bulls were thrown a lifeline in Asia following Chinese data that surprised in a big way to the upside, following a disappointment in local data from Australia that would have otherwise tipped the bias to the bears for the foreseeable future. 

The following illustrates the potential from here for the price to continue higher for the foreseeable future but also notes that there could be a pull in gravity due to the daily chart's W-formation. 

In prior analysis, it was noted that AUD/USD had reached toward a 50% mean reversion area and had been starting to come under pressure. However, it was also noted that this was not to say that the correction is on the way out. Instead, it could have been building up into a geometrical pattern:

A target of the 78.6% Fibonacci higher up near 0.6800 would align with the daily trendline resistance as follows:

However, the cracks started to come through in Asia: Aussie data dump crashes AUD/USD

AUD/USD had broken a trendline support, invalidating a thesis for a stronger correction (in the meantime), resisted by the 50% mean reversion of the prior bearish impulse:

It was stated that the data would be expected to continue to weigh on the Aussie as aggressive monetary tightening is likely cooling the economy and therefore casting a move dovish sentiment over the Reserve Bank of Australia.

However, along came Chinese data to the rescue, throwing the bulls a much-needed lifeline: 

China NBS Manufacturing / Non-manufacturing PMIs beats are a welcome surprise for AUD bulls

We have seen a significant recovery in AUD/USD as follows: 

This puts 0.6800 back on the map.

However, from a daily chart standpoint, the trendline resistance is a roadblock for higher:

Coupled with the W-formation, there could be a weight of gravity on the bulls for the foreseeable future:

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1700 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under mild bearish pressure and trades below 1.1750 on Friday. Although trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, the modest recovery seen in the US Dollar causes the pair to edge lower. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stabilizes near 1.3450

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3450 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold climbs toward $4,400 following deep correction

Gold advances toward $4,400 and gains more than 1.5% on the day after suffering heavy losses amid profit-taking heading into the end of the year. Growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks seem to be helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).