AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears flirt with 38.2% Fibo./200-period SMA confluence support


  • AUD/USD dropped to two-week lows in reaction to the RBA Governor Lowe’s comments.
  • The set-up favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move.
  • A sustained move beyond the 0.7400 round figure is needed to negate the negative outlook.

The AUD/USD pair struggled to capitalize on the previous day's modest recovery gains, instead met with some fresh supply on Tuesday and dropped to two-week lows during the early European session.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe downplayed speculations for an early rate hike and highlighted the downside risks associated with the recent spread of the Delta variant. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that weighed on the Australian dollar and exerted downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

However, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. Apart from this, some follow-through US dollar pullback from two-week tops touched in the previous session acted as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair and helped limit losses, at least for now.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has managed to defend confluence support comprising of 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 0.7106-0.7478 strong rally. This should now act as a key pivotal point as the focus remains on the US consumer inflation figures.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts are holding deep in the negative territory but are yet to confirm a bearish bias on the daily chart. This makes it prudent to wait for sustained weakness below the mentioned confluence support before traders start positioning for an extension of the recent depreciating move.

The next relevant support is pegged near the 50% Fibo. level, just below the 0.7300 mark. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the AUD/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards mid-0.7200s en-route the 0.7230-25 support and the 0.7200 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery now seems to confront immediate resistance near the overnight swing highs, around the 0.7375 region, nearing the 23.6% Fibo. level. This is closely followed by the 0.7400 mark, which if cleared decisively would set the stage for a move towards retesting monthly tops, around the 0.7475-80 region.

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.7343
Today Daily Change -0.0026
Today Daily Change % -0.35
Today daily open 0.7369
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.7309
Daily SMA50 0.7359
Daily SMA100 0.7525
Daily SMA200 0.7609
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.7377
Previous Daily Low 0.7336
Previous Weekly High 0.7469
Previous Weekly Low 0.7345
Previous Monthly High 0.7427
Previous Monthly Low 0.7106
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7361
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7351
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7344
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7319
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.7302
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7385
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7402
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7427

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD loses the grip and challenges 1.0400

EUR/USD loses the grip and challenges 1.0400

A robust, tariff-driven upswing in the US Dollar is now driving EUR/USD to deepen its daily losses, closing in on the key support at 1.0400 the figure ahead of scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials and President Trump.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD drops to two-day lows around 1.2630 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD drops to two-day lows around 1.2630 on stronger Dollar

In line with its risk-releated peers, GBP/USD now succumbs to the bout of buying pressure in the Greenback, receding to two-day lows in the 1.2630 zone on Thursday ahead of comments from Fed policymakers and President Trump.

GBP/USD News
Gold flirts with two-week lows around $2,880

Gold flirts with two-week lows around $2,880

Gold prices resume their downtrend and revisit two-week lows in the sub-$2,880 zone per ounce troy following the improved tone in the US Dollar, higher yields and further tariff narrative.

Gold News
Bitcoin recovers above $85,000 while institutional investors offload their holdings

Bitcoin recovers above $85,000 while institutional investors offload their holdings

Bitcoin (BTC) recovers slightly and trades around $86,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after falling nearly 15% at one point this week. US President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff news and falling institutional demand fueled the BTC’s correction. 

Read more
February inflation: Sharp drop expected in France, stability in the rest of the Eurozone

February inflation: Sharp drop expected in France, stability in the rest of the Eurozone

Inflation has probably eased in February, particularly in France due to the marked cut in the regulated electricity price. However, this overall movement masks divergent trends. Although disinflation is becoming more widespread, prices continue to rise rapidly in services, in France as well as elsewhere in the Eurozone.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025