AUD/USD plummets below 0.6900 on downbeat Aussie inflation, employment data

• AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low; sellers approach the weekly bottom marked the previous day.
• Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for February eased to 5.1%.
• Aussie Employment Change offered negative surprise, Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7% during January.
• Hawkish Fed bets, RBA’s struggle to gain market confidence, keep bears hopeful.

AUD/USD stands on slippery grounds as sellers rush towards the weekly low of 0.6864, marked the previous day, following a nearly 40 pip of slump on the downbeat Australian inflation and employment numbers. That said, the Aussie pair marked the biggest daily loss in a fortnight the previous day as the US Dollar jumped to a six-week high amid strong US data.

That said, Australia’s headline Employment Change offered a negative surprise of -11.5K versus 20.0K expected and -14.6K prior, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.47% versus 3.5% expected and prior.

Also read: Breaking: AUD/USD drops over 30 pips on Aussie jobs data disappointment

Earlier in the day, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for February also eased to 5.1% versus 5.6% market forecasts and previous readouts.

Given the downbeat employment and inflation data, the cautious comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe join the increasing market bets on the hawkish Fed moves to weigh on the AUD/USD prices.

That said, the market’s bets on the Fed’s next moves, as per the FEDWATCH tool of Reuters, suggest that the US central bank rates are to peak in July around 5.25% versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10% top rate.

It’s worth observing that the hawkish Fed bets weigh on the market sentiment and the AUD/USD prices even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) takes a breather around 103.80 after rising to a fresh six-week high the previous day. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures remain indecisive, whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain sidelined near the 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday.

Risk catalysts and the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices will be eyed for clear directions. Still, major attention will be given to the central bank chatters.

Technical analysis

A U-turn from the 3.5-month-old previous support line, around 0.7005 by the press time, keeps AUD/USD bears hopeful, but the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA challenge the Aussie pair’s further downside around 0.6885 and 0.6800, respectively.