- AUD/USD seesaws around intraday low despite upbeat Australia trade numbers.
- Aussie Trade Balance rose past market consensus, prior during July, home data improves too.
- Australia refreshes record top infections, UK virus-led deaths jumps to highest since March.
- Risk appetite sours amid virus woes, cautious sentiment ahead of the key Friday.
AUD/USD struggles to keep the bounce off intraday low of 0.7357, down 0.06% near 0.7363 by the press time of early Thursday. In doing so, the Aussie pair tracks market sentiment while paying a little heed to upbeat trade numbers at home.
Australia Trade Balance for July crosses 10200M market consensus and 10496M previous readout to 12117. Details for Imports and Exports also improved from 1.0% and 4.0% respective priors to 3.3% and 4.8%. Furthermore, Investment Lending for Home crossed 0.7% level of June with 1.8% figures for July.
Despite upbeat data, AUD/USD stays pressured as a rebound in the covid cases the previous day fails to prevail after the virus infections in Australia jump the most, by 1,466 cases for Wednesday, per the latest data from ABC news. The news also highlights the two most populous states, respectively New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, as responsible for the spike in cases.
Further, the UK’s virus-led deaths rose past 200 for the first time since March the previous day. The UK Mirror said, “Coronavirus cases in the UK have on Wednesday risen by 35,693 with a further 207 deaths recorded in the last 24 hours - this is the first time daily deaths have risen above 200 since March.”
On the same line, New Zealand also crosses the 700 mark for the COVID-19 cases with the recent 49 daily numbers.
Read: Covid updates for New Zealand/Australia, lockdowns continue
In addition to the virus-led pessimism, the traders’ cautious mood ahead of the key US jobs report for August, up for publishing on Friday, also challenges the market sentiment and AUD/USD prices.
While portraying the market mood, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain pressured around 1.30% whereas the S&P 500 Futures seek fresh directions around the record top, down 0.07% intraday, by the press time.
It’s worth noting that the early signals for the US employment data favor a downbeat figure of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which in turn should help the Fed to defend easy money policies and weigh on the US dollar. However, the NFP is known for surprises and easing covid-led hospitalizations in the US, coupled with upbeat data, favors the Fed hawks.
That said, AUD/USD traders may take clues from the second-tier US employment data like Nonfarm Productivity for Q2 and weekly jobless claims while paying close attention to the risk catalysts like coronavirus updates and tapering tantrums for immediate directions.
Read: USD: ADP raises red flag for Nonfarm Payrolls
Technical analysis
Despite stepping back from 50-DMA, around 0.7380, AUD/USD keeps an upside break of a 10-week-old falling trend line, near 0.7285, amid bullish MACD. Also challenging the bulls is a year-old horizontal resistance, 0.7410-15. Hence, buyers remain hopeful but need a strong driver to cross the bumpy road to the north.
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