- AUD/USD edges lower to near 0.6790 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Escalating geopolitical tensions might weigh on the pair, while the Fed rate cut bets might cap its downside.
- Investors will monitor the Australian monthly CPI report, which is due on Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.6790 on Wednesday during the early Asian session. The risk-off mood amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighs on riskier assets like the Australian Dollar (AUD). Investors will take more cues from the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday for fresh impetus.
The rising Middle East geopolitical risks might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Greenback for the time being. Thousands of troops from special units mobilized for a large-scale operation in the northern West Bank, which is anticipated to take several weeks, per the local news agency Aljazeera.
However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut expectations are likely to cap the upside of the US Dollar (USD) and provide some support to AUD/USD. The US Fed is anticipated to cut rates in September, with a quarter-point move expected after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that it was time to cut rates.
Consumer confidence in the United States continued to improve in August, with the Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index climbing to 103.3 in August from 101.9 (revised from 100.3) in July. Nonetheless, this data provides little to no impact on the US D’s valuation.
On the Aussie front, the monthly Australian CPI inflation is estimated to ease to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.8% in June. The softer-than-expected outcome could trigger market speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower interest rates this year.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1100 on modest USD recovery
EUR/USD struggles to hold its ground and retreats toward 1.1100 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. Upbeat Retail Sales data and the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision helps the US Dollar recovery and weighs on the pair.
GBP/USD pulls away from multi-day highs, trades below 1.3200
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.3200 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The cautious market stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting supports the USD and limits the pair's upside.
Gold retreats below $2,580 ahead of Fed policy announcements
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure on Tuesday and trades below $2,580. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady above 3.6% ahead of the Fed's policy announcements on Wednesday, making it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum.
Why the Fed is set to cut interest rates and what does that mean Premium
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday. This is a crucial event as it directly affects families and businesses in the United States (US) – but also abroad given the importance of the US as the world’s largest economy.
Bitcoin approaches its $56,000 support level
Bitcoin is approaching a crucial daily support level of $56,000, hinting at a possible recovery. Ethereum faced rejection from the resistance level, suggesting a downward trend with weak momentum. In contrast, Ripple has bounced above the 100-day EMA, indicating a continued upward trend.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.