• AUD/USD edges lower to near 0.6580 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • The weaker Chinese economic data and Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs drag the China-proxy Aussie lower. 
  • The preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index came in better than expected in November.

The AUD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.6580 during the early Asian session on Monday. The weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and Trump tariff threats weigh on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Greenback. The US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Australian employment data will be the highlights for this week. 

China's CPI inflation rose at the slowest pace in four months in October, while Producer Price deflation deepened, the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed on Saturday. The slowdown comes as Chinese authorities seek to boost domestic activity as a property crisis weighs on confidence. Furthermore, Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs on Chinese goods might exert some selling pressure on the Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia. 

On the other hand, the preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 73.0 in November from 70.5 in October, better than the market expectation of 71.0. This upbeat report has boosted the Greenback broadly. 

Investors expect a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) as Trump will likely follow through with his plans to enact significant tariffs. This might prompt inflation and will keep the Fed from cutting rates as much as the officials would have, which could boost the USD. 

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.


 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Next on the downside comes 0.6500

AUD/USD: Next on the downside comes 0.6500

Further gains in the US Dollar kept the price action in commodities and the risk complex depressed on Tuesday, motivating AUD/USD to come close to the rea of the November low near 0.6500.

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD: No respite to the sell-off ahead of US CPI

EUR/USD: No respite to the sell-off ahead of US CPI

The rally in the Greenback remained well and sound for yet another session, weighing on the risk-linked assets and sending EUR/USD to new 2024 lows in the vicinity of 1.0590 prior to key US data releases.
 

EUR/USD News
Gold struggles to retain the $2,600 mark

Gold struggles to retain the $2,600 mark

Following the early breakdown of the key $2,600 mark, prices of Gold now manages to regain some composure and reclaim the $2,600 level and beyond amidst the persistent move higher in the US Dollar and the rebound in US yields.

Gold News
SOL Price Forecast: Solana bulls maintain $250 target as Binance lists ACT and PNUT

SOL Price Forecast: Solana bulls maintain $250 target as Binance lists ACT and PNUT

Solana price retraced 7% from $225 to $205 on Tuesday, halting a seven-day winning streak that saw SOL become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Read more
Five fundamentals: Fallout from the US election, inflation, and a timely speech from Powell stand out

Five fundamentals: Fallout from the US election, inflation, and a timely speech from Powell stand out Premium

What a week – the US election lived up to their hype, at least when it comes to market volatility. There is no time to rest, with politics, geopolitics, and economic data promising more volatility ahead.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures