Downward momentum is building; the Australian Dollar (AUD) could break below 0.6440 but might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold below 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Below 0.6440 a move to 0.6400 can be expected
24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that AUD ‘could advance above 0.6560 but is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 0.6600.’ Our view was incorrect, as AUD dropped from 0.6550 to 0.6487, closing largely unchanged at 0.6504 (+0.07%). In early Asian trade, AUD dropped sharply. The sharp decline has led to a buildup in momentum. AUD could continue to decline, possibly breaking below 0.6440. That said, it might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level. To sustain the momentum buildup, AUD must remain below 0.6510 (minor resistance is at 0.6490).”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Wednesday (20 Nov, spot at 0.6530), we indicated that AUD could rebound to 0.6560, possibly 0.6600. After AUD struggled to extend its advance, we indicated last Friday (22 Nov, spot at 0.6510) that it ‘has not been able to make any headway on the upside.’ We added, ‘if AUD breaks below 0.6470 (‘strong support’ level), it would indicate that it is not rebounding further.’ Early today, AUD fell sharply, and broke below 0.6470. Upward momentum has faded. Although downward momentum is beginning to build, it is not enough to suggest a sustained decline. AUD must break and hold below 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 can be expected. The likelihood of AUD breaking clearly below 0.6440 will increase in the next few days, provided that 0.6525 is not breached.”
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