- Australian Dollar gained over 1% against the US Dollar, on Wednesday.
- US April CPI rose by 0.3% MoM, core CPI dipped as expected.
- Australian wages grew less than estimated, hinting at easing inflationary pressures.
The Australian Dollar surged more than 1% against the US Dollar on Wednesday after data showed that consumer inflation moderated in April, with the underlying Consumer Price Index (CPI) edging lower for the first time in six months. As Thursday’s Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6695, virtually unchanged.
AUD/USD climbs as inflation moderates in both Australia and the US
Inflation in the US began to show signs of cooling after posting consecutive readings of stalling, which sparked a change of tone amongst Federal Reserve officials.
The US Department of Labor revealed that April’s CPI rose by 0.3% MoM, down from March’s 0.4% and estimates. The so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, dipped from 0.4% to 0.3% as expected.
At the same time, Retail Sales were unchanged in April, at 0% MoM, missing projections of a 0.6% increase as higher borrowing costs and mounting debt, weighed on American consumers.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that, given the higher government debt, achieving the 2% inflation target might necessitate higher borrowing costs in the near term. He expressed surprise at the resilience of consumer spending and highlighted the critical question of "how restrictive monetary policy is.”
On the Aussie’s front, wages increased less than estimated in Q1 2024, hinting that inflationary pressures could be easing. The Wage Price Index (WPI) came at 0.8% QoQ, down from 1% in Q4 2023, and missed estimates of 0.9%.
Ahead in the economic docket is Australia’s Employment report. Estimates suggest the economy added 23.7K employees to the workforce after laying off 6.6K in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 3.9% after ticking higher to 3.8% previously.
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The daily chart suggests that the AUD/USD uptrend will continue, but buyers must decisively surpass the 0.6700 figure. Momentum is on their side, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aims up, shy of turning overbought.
That said, once 0.6700 is cleared, the next stop would be the psychological 0.6750 figure, followed by the 0.6800 mark. Conversely, if AUD/USD stays below 0.6700, look for a pullback to the May 3 high at 0.6647, ahead of diving to 0.6600.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD Gains look limited by 1.1570 Premium
EUR/USD trades well on the defensive for the second day in a row, revisinting the mid-1.1300s on the back of the continuation of the upside impulse in the US dollar. The move followed firmer US PMI data and news indicating the White House may be considering tariff cuts on Chinese imports.
GBP/USD deflates to the sub-1.3300 area, USD bulls prevail
GBP/USD remained on the back foot Wednesday, slipping below the 1.3300 level as the Greenback gained further traction. The Dollar’s solid performance was supported by strong US data and fading concerns over a renewed escalation in the US–China trade dispute.
Gold corrected extreme conditions, struggles around $3,300
Gold extended its decline on Wednesday, slipping below the $3,300 mark per troy ounce in response to reports from the media suggesting the Trump administration is weighing tariff reductions on Chinese goods, a news that revived hopes of easing trade tensions and reduced demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset.
Bitcoin bullish momentum builds as premium exceeds 9% for first time in three months
Bitcoin price is extending its gains, trading above $94,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, following a two-day rally of 9.75% so far this week. BTC rally gathers momentum as trade war fears ease, following US President Donald Trump’s downplaying of tensions with China.
Five fundamentals for the week: Traders confront the trade war, important surveys, key Fed speech Premium
Will the US strike a trade deal with Japan? That would be positive progress. However, recent developments are not that positive, and there's only one certainty: headlines will dominate markets. Fresh US economic data is also of interest.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.