AUD/USD: Expected to edge lower, possibly reaching 0.6460

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to edge lower, possibly reaching 0.6460. The major support at 0.6440 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, AUD is likely to decline further; the levels to monitor are 0.6460 and 0.6440, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Major support at 0.6440 is likely out of reach

24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that AUD ‘is under mild downward pressure.’ We held the view that it ‘could drift lower, but a sustained break below 0.6500 appears unlikely.’ While we got the directional view correct, AUD fell more than expected to 0.6481. Despite the relatively sharp decline, downward momentum has not increased by much. Today, we expect AUD to edge lower, possibly reaching 0.6460. The major support at 0.6440 is likely out of reach. To maintain the momentum, AUD must not break above 0.6530, with minor resistance at 0.6510.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (13 Nov, spot at 0.6530), we highlighted that the recent price action has resulted in ‘a tentative buildup in momentum.’ We also highlighted that ‘To decline in a decisive manner, AUD must break and remain below 0.6500.’ AUD subsequently fell to 0.8481, closing at 0.6485. Although momentum has not increased much, AUD is likely to decline further. The two levels to monitor are 0.6460 and 0.6440. We will view AUD negatively as long as 0.6550 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.6600 yesterday) is not breached.”

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