- AUD/USD posts a fresh three-month low near 0.6460 as the US Dollar continues to move higher.
- Trump’s clean sweep will allow him to implement policies without interruption.
- RBA Bullock favored keeping interest rates at their current levels as inflation is still not under control.
The AUD/USD pair extends its downside journey to near 0.6460 in European trading hours on Thursday. The Aussie pair prints a fresh three-month low on multiple headwinds, weak Australian Employment data for October, and the upbeat US Dollar (USD).
Australian labor market data showed that the economy added 15.9K new workers, fewer than estimates of 25K and the former release of 61.3K. A slowdown in the labor demand diminished fears of price pressures remaining persistent for a longer period. The Unemployment Rate remains at 4.1%, as expected.
Though some signs of a slowdown in job growth are visible, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is less likely to cut interest rates sooner as Governor Michelle Bullock commented on Wednesday that interest rates are needed to remain at their current levels until the central bank get inflation under control.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar adds more gains as President-elected Donald Trump locks both United States (US) houses, the Senate and the House of Representatives, a scenario that will allow Republicans to implement policies smoothly. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises vertically to near the key resistance of 107.00, the highest level seen in more than a year. In the election campaign, Trump vowed to raise import tariffs and lower taxes.
Going forward, investors will focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for fresh guidance on interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in the December meeting.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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