- AUD/USD extends rally after US core PCE beats estimates
- The lack of a reaction may be as a result of the US Dollar already pricing in inflationary GDP data on Thursday.
- Higher Australian factory gate inflation data overnight added a tailwind to AUD/USD.
AUD/USD trades in the 0.6540s as it continues rallying after the release of US core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index data for March. Despite the data showing a higher than expected rate of inflation, the US Dollar (USD) shows little reaction in most pairs, including AUD/USD, which looks like it will clock up its fifth daily gain in a row assuming a bullish close on Friday.
US core PCE came in at 2.8% YoY in March – higher than the 2.6% expected and the same as the 2.8% previous, whilst headline PCE rose 2.7%, which was higher than the 2.6% expected and 2.5% previous. On month, the PCE data came out in line with expectations.
The US Dollar’s lack of reaction could be put down to its already pricing in inflationary GDP data for the first quarter on Thursday, which pre-empted the inflationary core PCE data.
Although the rate of US GDP growth slowed in Q1, the GDP Price Index component, which measures goods inflation, rose much higher than previously. As a result of the data the US Dollar strengthened in most pairs and AUD/USD pared its earlier gains, falling to a low 0.6486 after the release.
Australian factory price inflation data out overnight, however, gave fresh impetus to the pair, after it showed a rise 4.3% YoY in Q1 from 4.1% in the previous quarter. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data added further evidence of price pressures in the Australian economy after Q1 CPI data beat expectations on Thursday giving a lift to AUD/USD in the process.
Persistent inflation means the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is seen as the last G10 bank likely to cut interest rates, with some analysts now delaying calls for an RBA rate cut until February 2025. The expectation that Aussie interest rates will fall more slowly than in other countries is supportive for the AUD as relatively higher interest rates attract greater capital inflows.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.