AUD/USD: Chance for AUD to break above 0.6410 – UOB Group

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate between 0.6340 and 0.6385. In the longer run, chance for AUD to break above 0.6410; a break of this significant resistance level could potentially trigger a rapid rise, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 

A clear break above 0.6410 can potentially trigger a rise

24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to 'test 0.6410' yesterday, but we pointed out that 'due to the deeply overbought conditions, it is unclear whether AUD can break clearly above this level.' Our expectation did not turn out, as AUD dropped from 0.6391 to 0.6344 before closing at 0.6361 (- 0.38%). The price action is likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6340 and 0.6385." 

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (18 Mar, spot at 0.6385), we revised our outlook to positive, indicating that 'there is a chance for AUD to break above 0.6410.' We also indicated the following: 'The chance of AUD breaking above 0.6410 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6320, is not breached. Note that 0.6410 is a significant resistance, and a clear break above this level could potentially trigger a sharp and rapid rise.' Our update remains valid."