AUD/USD: Below 0.6440 can move to 0.6400 – UOB Group

Downward momentum has eased; the Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6440 and 0.6500. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold below 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analyst Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Downward momentum has eased

24-HOUR VIEW: “After AUD dropped sharply early yesterday, we pointed out that ‘downward momentum is beginning to build.’ We indicated, AUD ‘could break below 0.6440, but it might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level.’ We also indicated that ‘To sustain the momentum buildup, AUD must remain below 0.6510 (minor resistance is at 0.6490).’ AUD subsequently dropped to 0.6434, rebounding strongly to 0.6508. AUD closed at 0.6474 (-0.47%). Downward momentum appears to have eased with the strong rebound. In other words, AUD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 0.6440 and 0.6500.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (26 Nov), when AUD was at 0.6470, we highlighted that it ‘must break and hold below 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 can be expected.’ We added, ‘The likelihood of AUD breaking clearly below 0.6440 will increase in the next few days, provided that 0.6525 is not breached.’ While AUD subsequently broke below 0.6440, it rebounded from 0.6434 to close at 0.6474. We continue to hold the same view for now.”