- AUD/USD struggles to defend bulls during the first positive day in three.
- Risk appetite remains mixed as hopes of more stimulus from China, Covid woes test sentient amid light calendar.
- Hopes of Australia-China diplomatic ties also underpin AUD/USD rebound.
- Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes, Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data will be crucial for Australian Dollar traders.
AUD/USD seesaws around the 0.6700 round figure as a short-term moving average defends the Australia Dollar buyers during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays the cautious optimism in the market amid sluggish moves and a light calendar. However, broad US Dollar weakness allows the pair buyers to cheer the first daily gains in three.
China-linked news favor AUD/USD buyers.
Be it a likely restoration of the Aussie-Sino ties or China’s readiness for more stimulus, AUD/USD has reasons to defend the latest recovery moves. In this regard Reuters said, “Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong will visit China this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday, signaling an improvement in diplomatic relations between Beijing and Canberra.” The news also stated that China President Xi Jinping and his senior officials on Friday pledged to shore up China's battered economy next year by stepping up policy adjustments to ensure key targets are hit.
Alternatively, doubts over China’s economic growth and the reliability of the latest easing in Covid policy seem to challenge the AUD/USD pair buyers. It’s worth noting that the People’s Bank of China's (PBOC) defense of easy money policy also keeps the Australia Dollar firmer, due to the strong trade links between Australia and China.
US Dollar fails to cheer hawkish Federal Reserve talks
US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids from intraday low but prints 0.15% daily loss around 104.60 as traders struggle for clear directions. The reason could be linked to the hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and softer US PMIs for December.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and New York Federal Reserve President John Williams recently favored higher rates. On the other hand, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.2 from 47.7 in November, as well as the market expectation of 47.7. Further, S&P Global Services PMI declined to 44.4 in December's flash estimate from 46.2 in November and market expectation of 46.8.
AUD/USD traders await Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes, United States Inflation data
In its latest monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced 25 basis points (bps) rate hike and showed readiness for more. However, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe appeared less convinced of the hawkish move and hence the AUD/USD pair traders will pay more attention to confirm the dovish bias over the RBA, which in turn could weigh on the Australian Dollar.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred version of inflation, namely Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index, expected 4.6% YoY and 5.0% prior, will be important for the AUD/USD pair traders. Should the inflation number appear softer, the US Dollar may have more downside to trace, which in turn could weigh on the Aussie pair.
Additionally, Australia’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook will be important as economic fears gain momentum, which if confirmed could weigh on the AUD/USD prices.
AUD/USD: Technical analysis
AUD/USD bears mark another retreat from the 200-SMA, after an early November rebound from the stated key Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Not only the U-turn from the 200-SMA, around 0.6680 by the press time, but an impending bull cross on the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator also keeps the AUD/USD pair buyers hopeful.
However, a successful run-up beyond the previous weekly start of around 0.6730 appears necessary for the Australia Dollar buyers.
Following that, a one-week-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 0.6815 appears as the last defense of the AUD/USD pair bears, a break of which could propel the quote towards a convergence of the five-week-old ascending trend line and the monthly top, close to the 0.6900 round figure.
On the flip side, a break of the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.6680 could fetch the Australia Dollar towards the late November swing low near 0.6585.
In a case where the AUD/USD bears break the 0.6585 support, the November 08 peak of 0.6551 appears the key challenge before activating a south run towards the previous monthly low near 0.6272.
AUD/USD: Four-hour chart
Trend: Recovery expected
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