AUD/USD: A brief breach of 2020 lows is possible but then Aussie expected to turn higher – MUFG

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Australian Dollar depreciated for the third consecutive month in October. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Aussie’s outlook.

AUD downside risks diminishing from here

The RBA has made clear in recent communications that inflation needed to decline at a certain pace and a slower-than-expected pace could warrant further tightening. The OIS market is now priced at a little over a 50% probability of a hike on 7th November. It is a close call but we are not convinced that recent developments will trigger a ‘material’ revision to inflation forecasts.

China has announced a CNY1 trillion fiscal stimulus package which could well mean Chinese growth in 2024 is stronger than the current consensus estimate (4.5%; Bloomberg) and this should help provide AUD with support.

Assuming the RBA refrains from hiking in November, downside risks for AUD/USD may persist over the coming months and a brief breach of 2020 lows is possible but based on slower growth emerging in the US, we then expect AUD to turn higher.

AUD/USD – Q4 2023 0.63 Q1 2024 0.66 Q2 2024 0.67 Q3 2024 0.67

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Breaking: US and Israel attack Iran, risk aversion to sweep global markets

Early Saturday, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.