|

AUD/USD: A big beat in NFP may accelerate move towards the YTD low of 0.65 – TDS

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just kept the official interest rate unchanged at 4.1%.  Today's dovish surprise is sending AUD lower. Economists at TD Securities analyze Aussie outlook.

RBA trying to engineer a soft landing 

The RBA chose to pause again, leaving the cash rate target at 4.1%. The Bank is now recalibrating its focus towards the pursuit of a ‘soft landing’ given its more pessimistic assessment of the economic outlook. However, the Bank is still leaving the option to hike on the table through the reinstatement of upside risks to inflation and isn't calling it quits. 

After sitting in the middle of the 0.66-0.69 range, today's dovish surprise is likely to send AUD lower, possibly retesting the support of the 0.65 lows in end May.

The repricing of the terminal lower and China's outlook are likely to weigh on the AUD in the near-term. 

China data and growth perceptions are likely to overtake as key drivers for the currency post RBA and the lack of concrete stimulus details and disappointing Chinese data add to bearish AUD momentum. 

Another risk event for AUD for the remainder of the week will be the July Payrolls. A big beat in NFP may accelerate AUD's move towards the YTD low of 0.65.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750

Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3400 ahead of US data and BoE

GBP/USD reverses its direction and advances toward 1.3400 following a drop to the 1.3350 area earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to gather recovery momentum as markets await Tuesday's Nonfarm Payrolls data, while the Pound Sterling holds steady ahead of the BoE policy announcements later in the week.

Gold pulls away from session high, holds above $4,300

Gold loses its bullish momentum and retreats below $4,350 after testing this level earlier on Monday. XAU/USD, however, stays in positive territory as the US Dollar remains on the back foot on growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy outlook next year.

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch. 

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana (SOL) price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout.