- AUD/JPY appreciates due to improved risk-on sentiment following reduced fears of a US recession.
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock anticipates no rate cuts in the near term.
- The Japanese Yen may advance further due to the rising odds of a further rate hike by the BoJ.
AUD/JPY advances further for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.90 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the Japanese Yen (JPY) due to improved risk sentiment following the stronger-than-expected recovery in US Retail Sales, which has eased concerns about a potential recession in the United States (US).
Additionally, hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock are boosting the Aussie Dollar and underpinning the AUD/JPY cross. On Friday, Governor Bullock emphasized that the Australian central bank is focused on potential upside risks to inflation and does not foresee any rate cuts in the near future. The board believes it has found the right balance between curbing inflation and maintaining stability in the current economic environment, per ABC News.
Earlier this week data reported in China showed that Retail Sales grew by 2.7% year-on-year in July, exceeding market forecasts of 2.6% and accelerating from June's 17-month low of 2.0%. This might have supported the Aussie Dollar as both countries are close trade partners.
The upside of the AUD/JPY cross could be limited as the Japanese Yen receives support from the recent GDP report indicating growth in Japan’s second quarter. This consistent growth lends support to the possibility of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
In Japan, political uncertainty may contribute to the downside of the JPY. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced at a press conference on Wednesday that he will not seek re-election as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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