- AUD/JPY depreciates as risk aversion increases due to rising fears over the Chinese economy.
- Traders await RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech to gather more insights into the central bank's policy stance.
- Japan will allocate ¥989 billion to fund energy subsidies in response to rising energy costs.
AUD/JPY halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 98.40 during the European session on Tuesday. This downside of the AUD/JPY cross is attributed to rising risk aversion as traders adopt caution due to concerns mounting over China’s economic woes.
Traders assess July manufacturing PMI data from China, a key trading partner of Australia. Official figures indicated the sharpest contraction in factory activity in six months, while private survey readings suggested that the manufacturing sector had expanded for the seventh time this year.
Traders are now focusing on Australia's Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and July Trade Balance data, as well as an upcoming speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock later in the week, to gather more insights into the central bank's hawkish stance on monetary policy.
On Tuesday, Japan announced the allocation of ¥989 billion to fund energy subsidies in response to rising energy costs and the resulting cost-of-living pressures. This government intervention could potentially contribute to inflation.
The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish monetary policy stance has been further reinforced by a recent increase in Tokyo's inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.6% year-on-year in August, up from 2.2% in July. Core CPI also rose to 1.6% YoY in August, compared to the previous 1.5%.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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