- AUD/JPY attracts fresh sellers and retreats further from over a one-week high set on Tuesday.
- Trade uncertainties continue to weigh on investors’ sentiment and underpin the safe-haven JPY.
- US-China trade tensions overshadow upbeat Chinese data and do little to support spot prices.
The AUD/JPY cross drifts lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from over a one-week high, around the 91.40 region touched the previous day. Spot prices stick to negative bias below the mid-90.00s and move little in reaction to mostly upbeat Chinese macro releases.
The official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 compared to the market forecast of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, however, Chinese economic growth slowed from 1.6% to 1.2%, missing consensus estimates for a 1.4% print. Meanwhile, China’s annual March Retail Sales jumped by 5.9% vs. the 4.2% expected and 4% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 7.7% vs. 5.6% estimate and February’s 5.9%.
Furthermore, the Fixed Asset Investment advanced 4.2% year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) in March vs 4.1% expected and 4.1% previous. However, the rapidly escalating US-China trade war, to a larger extent, overshadows the upbeat data and does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). Moreover, persistent safe-haven demand, along with bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates further, underpins the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighs on the AUD/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released on Tuesday suggested that policymakers remain cautious about further interest rate cuts amid global economic uncertainty. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the AUD and help limit the downside for the AUD/JPY cross. Traders now look forward to monthly employment details from Australia, due for release during the Asian session on Thursday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term trajectory for the AUD.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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