AUD/JPY hovers near 95.00, downside risks appear amid increased risk aversion

AUD/JPY holds its ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 94.90 during early European hours on Thursday. However, the currency pair faced resistance as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened against its peers due to heightened risk aversion driven by concerns over impending US auto tariffs.

Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, further escalating global trade tensions. The tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, with collection beginning the following day.

Despite this, the AUD found some support after President Trump hinted at plans to impose tariffs on copper imports within weeks—an earlier-than-expected move, as the Commerce Department had until November 2025 to decide on the matter. As Australia is a key copper exporter, this development lifted commodity prices, providing temporary relief for the AUD.

Further support for the AUD could come from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain steady interest rates next week. In February, the RBA implemented its first 25-basis-point rate cut in four years. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance on further rate cuts, signaling a more conservative approach in its latest policy statement.

However, the upside for the AUD/JPY cross may be capped as the Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers amid its safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has lost some strength following President Trump’s confirmation that the 25% auto tariffs will be permanent throughout his second term.

Adding to JPY strength, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic projections remain on track. Ueda noted that economic growth has surpassed expectations, supported by rising incomes and stronger consumer spending.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated in parliament on Thursday that Japan would not rule out countermeasures against the Trump administration’s auto tariffs. Ishiba emphasized the need to protect national interests, arguing that as the largest investor in the US, Japan should not be treated the same as other nations. Despite Tokyo’s diplomatic efforts—including increased investments and energy purchases—Japan failed to secure an exemption from the tariffs.