- AUD/JPY edges higher due to a solid labor report from Australia released on Thursday.
- Australia’s Employment Change rose by 64.1K, far exceeding the expected 25.0K increase.
- The Japanese Yen lost ground as the domestic Trade Balance reported a larger-than-expected deficit of JPY 294.3 billion in September.
AUD/JPY gains momentum after two consecutive days of losses, trading near the key psychological level of 100.00 during the European session on Thursday. This upward movement is largely driven by the strengthening of the Australian Dollar (AUD), following a robust Australian employment report.
In September, seasonally adjusted Employment Change surged by 64.1K, bringing total employment to a record 14.52 million, far exceeding market expectations of a 25.0K increase. This followed a revised rise of 42.6K in August.
Additionally, Australia's Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in September, matching the revised figure for August and beating forecasts of 4.2%. The number of unemployed individuals fell by 9.2K, bringing the total to 615,700.
On the JPY’s side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces additional downward pressure after the release of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data on Thursday. Japan's Trade Balance reported a deficit of JPY 294.3 billion in September, compared to August's larger deficit of JPY 703.2 billion. This marked the third consecutive month of a trade gap, and it was worse than market expectations of a JPY 237.6 billion shortfall.
Japan's exports declined by 1.7% year-over-year in September, reversing the marginally revised 5.5% growth in August and missing forecasts of a 0.5% increase. This was the first drop in exports since November 2023. Meanwhile, imports rose by 2.1% year-over-year, following a 2.3% increase in August but also falling short of the 3.2% growth expected by the market. Although this was the sixth straight month of rising imports, it represented the softest growth in the sequence.
This disappointing trade balance report adds further complications to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy, putting additional downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Earlier in the week, BoJ board member Seiji Adachi cautioned that the BoJ must avoid making any drastic changes to its policy, citing uncertainties in the global economic outlook and concerns over domestic wage growth.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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