US Rates Strategists at TD Securities (TDS) express their concerns over ballooning US deficits and their impact on the Treasury market.
Key quotes
“While Treasury is likely to hold auction sizes steady starting in May, investors remain concerned about the long-term US deficit trajectory. We believe it would take a combination of stronger economic data and a refocusing of market attention on the deficit outlook to produce a repeat of the 2023-style bear steepening in Treasuries.”
“US deficits are on one of the worst trajectories on record and are set to deteriorate further as the 2017 tax cuts are likely to be renewed next year.”
“The reinstatement of the debt ceiling in early 2025 should ensure that the budget and debt ceiling are politically coupled once again. Next year's negotiation is likely to be one the most contentious showdowns since 2011, and we see a risk of yet another downgrade to the US credit rating.”
“The ongoing rise in deficits and declining dealer balance sheet capacity have led some investors to conclude that the Fed would intervene in markets if liquidity conditions deteriorate sharply. However, we believe the bar for the Fed intervention is quite high, and it would take a true shock for the Fed to step in.”
“The Treasury market is likely to remain focused on inflation and growth in the near term. However, rising deficits should continue to push term premium higher, the curve steeper, long-end swap spreads tighter, and keep real rates elevated.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD trades modestly flat above 0.6400 after Aussie trade data
AUD/USD reacts little to better-than-expected Australian Goods Trade Balance data and remains in a range above 0.6400 early Thursday. Rising bets for an early RBA rate cut cap the Aussie's upside amid China's economic woes and US-Sino trade war fears. Eyes turn to US data, Fedspeak.
USD/JPY fades the dovish BoJ commentary-led uptick above 150.50
USD/JPY is reversing the bounce to near 150.70 in the Asian session on Thursday. The pair remains weighed down by rising bets for another BoJ rate hike this month, shrugging off the dovish comments from BoJ policymaker Nakamura and a modest recovery in the US Treasury bond yields.
Gold price lacks firm near-term direction and is stuck in a familiar range
Gold price extends its sideways consolidative price move in a familiar range, awaiting a fresh catalyst before the next leg of a directional move. Geopolitical tensions, trade war fears and the overnight decline in the US bond yields offer support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.
Ripple's XRP could see a price rebound despite retail activity decline, RLUSD launch delay
XRP traded near $2.4 on Wednesday as Ripple Labs clarified that its RLUSD stablecoin will not debut on exchanges despite a rumored launch among crypto community members. Amid a sharp decline in XRP's price, on-chain data shows the remittance-based token still has the potential to resume its rally.
Four out of G10
In most cases, the G10 central bank stories for December are starting to converge on a single outcome. Here is the state of play: Fed: My interpretation of Waller’s speech this week is that his prior probability for a December cut was around 75% before the data.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.