Apple stock sinks beneath 200-day moving average as Trump raises Canadian tariffs

Apple (AAPL) stock is following the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lower on Tuesday after United States (US) President Donald Trump added an additional 25% tariff to imports of Canadian steel and aluminum. Apple stock was down 3% just before lunchtime in New York.

Trump said the move is retaliation for the Canadian province of Ontario subjecting exports of electricity to the US to a 25% surcharge.

The 25% levy on steel and aluminum comes on top of an earlier global 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum that was erected in the past month. Canada is the US’ second-largest trade partner and accounts for about 13.5% of total trade, according to the US Census Bureau.

US stock indices are mostly shifting lower on Tuesday but at a more moderate clip than the sell-offs that enveloped last Friday and this Monday. The Dow Jones has shed 1% in the morning session, while the S&P 500 is down 0.6% and the NASDAQ is only negligibly lower.

Apple stock news

Though the new tariffs on steel and aluminum shouldn’t mean much to Apple’s margins on their own, the steady drumbeat of Trump’s trade war is a worrying sign as investors ponder whether the US economy is headed for a recession. The Atlanta Fed’s much-watched GDPNow estimate for the first quarter predicted last week that the US economy would decelerate by 2.4%. 

Bank of America Securities reports that last week saw the largest selling volume since last October of single stocks. What’s more, technology stocks saw the brunt of selling. Still, many of these clients, most of which were institutions, were reinvesting in equity ETFs.

Apple management has provided a solid outlook for 2025, but there are still many uncertainties. Apple’s smartwatch segment saw sales decline 19% YoY in 2024 even as Asian brands sought market share.

China’s Huawei, a company blacklisted by the US government, reported that smartwatch sales increased 35% on an annual basis, while Imoo sales grew 22% from a year earlier. South Korea’s Samsung saw sales increase just 3%. Meanwhile, the Chinese conglomerate Xiaomi saw its own smartwatch sales surge by 135%.

On Monday, Citi Research cut its expectation for iPhone shipments to 232 million or 2% annual growth in 2025. Prior to this client note, Citi had expected 5% YoY growth.

The reduction in iPhone shipments is an effect of Apple delaying the upgrade timeline for its digital assistant Siri.

“The expectation has been that the big update of Siri with on-screen awareness, personal context and deep app integration will be released sometime this April/May,” said the Citi team led by Atif Malik, “but Apple confirmed on March 7 that the company sees delay in these features and now expects to roll it out in the coming year, which we view as a negative as it would have been a catalyst to drive up higher refresh this year.”

Apple stock forecast

Apple stock is trading down close to 3% on Tuesday near $220. This is simply near where AAPL shares found a base of support in late January but now it is beneath the significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

AAPL daily stock chart

Apple stock largely held to the 200-day SMA on Monday despite the deep tech sell-off, but now it is treading well below it for the first time since May 2024. As AAPL largely consolidated between $220 and $260 since last July, this moving average has continued to narrow its gap with the price action.

Investors will surely view this as a sign that Apple stock is in for an extended downtrend. Observers will note that despite the recent decline, Apple stock still isn’t oversold with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 32. Most will expect further capitulation.

With retaliatory tariffs likely to hit US markets once Trump’s tariff policy goes fully into effect, expect major share price declines to ensue in the medium term. A first bet of the $196 resistance-turned-support level might give way to 2024’s $180 and even $164.