- AMC stock failed to catch a bid on Tuesday despite broad market gains.
- AMC shares did however gain over 6% on Friday.
- Latest Lightyear film fails to reach infinity for AMC.
AMC stock held its ground in a lackluster session for the former meme stock king on Tuesday. Curious, given the advance in broader markets. AMC settled for a loss of 0.2% to close Tuesday at $12.50. The long weekend due to the Juneteenth holiday should have presumably helped box office takings. With Tuesday appearing to be a risk-on day, the underperformance of AMC could ring some alarm bells in the ape community.
Also read: Walmart Deep Dive Analysis: Hold WMT to play defense vs upcoming US recession
Lightyear to infinity and below
Lightyear, the latest Disney Pixar release, has underwhelmed, both in terms of attendance and in maintaining the high standard of the Toy Story movies. It is often unusual to talk about cinema attendances when they have had such little impact on AMC stock in the recent past. There is no escaping from that, even if usually, it is the latest short interest numbers that garner the most attention from the AMC apes or the latest diversion into alternative assets, from gold to crypto to AMC popcorn. I speak from experience having only watched the movie on Monday. Box office takings were down versus expectations. US takings for the Buzz Lightyear film came in at $50 million despite a widespread opening. Adding on international taking brings it up to circa $85 million but the expectation was nearer $100 million-plus.
Jurassic World Dominion and Top Gun Maverick continue to hold the top spots in box office takings. Disney stock fell 1% on Tuesday and is down 2% on Wednesday, coincidence, I think not!
Adam Aron losing grip on AMC apes
Adam Aron, the AMC CEO, lost a compensation vote at the last AMC shareholder meeting. That is an interesting twist, as AMC apes had been very supportive of Aron. Nearly 87 million votes were cast against the AMC CEO with only 52 million backing the pay proposal for AMC executives. The vote is non-binding so it carries merely symbolic importance. Fear not for the AMC boss, as he still gets to have his cake and eat it.
Last week, Aron attempted to address a favourite theory of the AMC apes, that of hidden or fake shares being used to short AMC. Did the apes turn on him then and vote against his pay deal? Well, hardly it was mostly institutional holders holding the block votes.
Inbound tweets ask over and over for a “share count.” AMC has done a share count 6 times in the past year. We know of 516.8 million AMC shares. Some of you believe the count is much higher. As I’ve said before, we’ve seen no reliable info on so-called synthetic or fake shares.
— Adam Aron (@CEOAdam) June 15, 2022
AMC stock trend: Have meme stocks bottomed out?
While the narrative has shifted toward not if but when the US economy will enter a recession there may be signs of life Jim but not as we know it in the previously hammered meme stock or high-risk equity space. The classic stick to beat was the ARKK ETF which looks like it may have put in a double bottom, chart below. The chart below ARKK is the China Internet ETF KWEB which has indeed bottomed out back in the middle of March. So is it time to once again launch back into meme stocks and squeeze those shorts?
ARKK chart, daily
KWEB ETF daily chart
AMC stock forecast
AMC stock is showing signs of a nascent uptrend. That's my word of the day out there! There is some hope for beaten-down meme stockholders. While AMC shares did not rally on Tuesday other meme names did with GameStop (GME) up 4% and EV stocks also pushing higher. Our view remains negative but we are on watch for a risk-on rally.
AMC stock daily chart
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