The most important aspect of today’s ECB policy meeting is any guidance on what happens next. Economists at Rabobank analyze EUR outlook.
Risks for EUR/GBP seen as being well balanced
It is our house view that ECB rates could reach their peak today, though we acknowledge that the risk of one more hike is finely balanced.
The market is positioned long of the EUR, meaning that a lack of hawkishness in the ECB’s commentary today could leave the EUR on the back foot.
On the assumption that ECB rates are close to peaking, we see EUR/USD trading down to the EUR/USD 1.08 area on a three-month view. We see the risks for EUR/GBP as being well balanced.
See – ECB Preview: Forecasts from 12 major banks, the final 25 bps?
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains tepid following PBoC monetary policy decision
AUD/USD retraces its recent gains from the previous session against the US Dollar following the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy decision on Friday. China’s central bank decided to keep its one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively, in the fourth quarterly meeting.
USD/JPY: Japanese Yen bulls remain on the sidelines despite strong Japan’s National CPI print
The Japanese Yen adds to the post-BoJ losses and drops to a five-month low against the USD. The Fed’s hawkish shift remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and undermines the JPY. A stronger-than-expected Japan’s National CPI keeps the door open for a BoJ rate hike in 2025.
Gold price holds steady around $2,600; upside potential seems limited
Gold price attracts some haven flows amid the looming risk of a US government shutdown. The global flight to safety-led pullback in the US bond yields further benefits the XAU/USD. The Fed’s hawkish stance acts as a tailwind for the USD and should cap any further upside.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple crash, wiping $1.17 billion from the market
Bitcoin price trades below $98,000 on Friday after declining more than 6% this week. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps, closing below their key support and declining 12% and 4.5%, respectively, this week.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.