Gold Forecast and News
Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains
Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,358.16 and aims to extend its slide. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has turned lower above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at $4,445.70. Still, the 100- and 200-period SMAs remain below spot with modest upward slopes, at $4,339.52 and $4,240.55, respectively. At the same time, the Momentum indicator aims lower below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also aims south at 37, in line with a continued slide.
In the daily chart, however, the downward potential of XAU/USD seems limited. The 20-day SMA continues to provide relevant support at $4,315, while rising above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, which maintain their bullish slopes. The Momentum indicator edges higher above its midline, while the RSI indicator advances at around 56, suggesting buyers paused but did not give up. The broader trend backdrop remains positive as the 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to slope higher, and the bullish tone would persist as long as the price holds above the 20-day SMA at $4,315.
Fundamental Overview
Spot Gold tries to regain its bullish poise on Tuesday, trading above $4,350 after bottoming at $4,300 on Monday. The XAU/USD pair edged sharply lower after reaching an all-time high at the beginning of the week amid profit-taking ahead of the New Year’s holiday. The bright metal benefits from a risk-averse environment, although the advance is tepid amid resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand.
Wall Street is under pressure for a second consecutive day, although the slide is more linked to the lack of news than to a negative headline. Pretty much, investors are closing their books for the year as most financial markets will be closed on Wednesday, with market activity resuming on January 2.
A pinch of caution adds to the USD near-term advance ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the December meeting. The document will be released in the mid-American session and could shed some light on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy steps. The release may trigger near-term movements due to the ongoing lack of trading volume, but is unlikely to have a sustained impact, as market players are patiently waiting for United States (US) President Donald Trump to name the next Chair to go full in.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD poised to challenge record highs Premium
Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close
Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery
GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull.
USD/JPY rises to near 156.60 as US Dollar Index refreshes weekly high
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.2% higher to near 156.60 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday. The pair gains as the US Dollar trades higher, following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the December policy meeting showed on Tuesday.
Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains
Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.
WTI Crude’s recovery stalls below $58.00 as oversupply fears remain
The recovery of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate from $56.60 lows last week was capped on Tuesday at $58.30 before retreating to levels near $57.60 in Wednesday’s early European session. A somewhat stronger US Dollar and downbeat EIA Inventory figures have offset the positive impact of the geopolitical frictions in sensitive areas of the globe.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.