Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold meets support around the $3,000 mark
The combined impact of a stronger US Dollar, continued profit taking, and the effects of Quadruple Witching weighed on Gold, pulling its troy ounce price down to around the pivotal $3,000 level on Friday.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The quadruple witching this Friday offers traders and funds a window of opportunity to take some profit from the precious metal. Big volumes will be traded, which means market participants are less exposed and it is not likely that expiring contracts will result in sales. At the end of this Friday, the question remains about how many contract holders in Bullion will have rolled over their contracts at current elevated prices.
Regarding technical levels, the intraday Pivot Point at $3,042 is the first resistance to recover, followed by the new all-time high at $3,057 reached on Thursday. The next target is the R1 resistance at $3,059, just below the $3,060 round number. If the last one is broken, then R2 resistance comes in at $3,074.
On the downside, the S1 support at $3,027 is doing its job for now during the European trading session, seeing some buyers coming in just below that level. In case more selling pressure should occur, look for the S2 support at $3,011 and the $3,000 round number to try and avoid a sharp correction.
Fundamental Overview
Quadruple Witching is an event in financial markets when four different sets of futures and options expire on the same day, and investors need to decide whether to sell and buy back their positions or just sell them.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, tensions remain in Gaza and Turkey. Later during the day, markets will brace for comments on tariffs from United States (US) President Donald Trump, as announced reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 2 and might shake up markets.
Daily digest market movers: Pension funds delight
Gold has climbed 16% this year in a rally that has produced 15 all-time highs in 2025, extending last year’s strong gains as investors seek safety. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have bolstered the precious metal’s appeal. Several major banks have raised their price targets for bullion in recent weeks, with Macquarie Group forecasting it could rise as high as $3,500 an ounce, Bloomberg reports.
An example of how not only traders enjoy the Gold’s rally comes with numbers from the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. The pension fund gained 9.4% last year, driven by strong returns in stocks, venture growth and commodities. The performance boosted the fund’s net assets to $185.2 billion at the end of 2024, according to a statement Thursday, Bloomberg reports.
Indonesian mining Stocks tumbled on Friday after the government signaled it was pushing forward with plans to hike royalties paid by producers in a bid to bolster public finances, Reuters reports. The local industry index for miners, including PT Vale Indonesia and PT Merdeka Copper Gold, fell as much as 3.2%, the biggest slide since the plan was first proposed at the start of last week.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Bulls take a break after notching a new record high Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) corrected lower but managed to stabilize to end the week comfortably above $3,000 after notching a new record peak above $3,050 on Thursday.
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METALS BULLISH THEMES
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Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD remains offered and challenges 1.0800
The intense recovery in the US Dollar keeps the price action in the risk complex depressed, forcing EUR/USD to recede further and put the key support at 1.0800 to the test on Friday.
GBP/USD breaks below 1.2900 on stronger Dollar
Persistent buying pressure on the Greenback has pushed GBP/USD to multi-day lows below the 1.2900 level, as investors continue to digest the recent interest rate decisions from both the Fed and the BoE.
USD/JPY surrenders intraday gains as US Dollar advances
USD/JPY falls back as the US Dollar gains on the Fed’s support for a restrictive policy stance. US President Trump’s tariff policies are expected to boost US inflation and weigh on economic growth. Japan’s National CPI cooled down in February.
Gold meets support around the $3,000 mark
The combined impact of a stronger US Dollar, continued profit taking, and the effects of Quadruple Witching weighed on Gold, pulling its troy ounce price down to around the pivotal $3,000 level on Friday.
WTI remains stable above $68.00, poises for a second straight weekly gain
West Texas Intermediate Oil price holds ground for the third successive session, trading around $68.40 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday. Oil prices remain on track for their second consecutive weekly increase, driven by new United States (US) sanctions on Iran.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 XAU/USD forecast!
2025 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2025, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that geopolitical developments and Donald Trump’s policies are expected to influence Gold price in 2025. XAU/USD could meet the first support area at $2,530-$2,500, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the October 2023 to November 2024 uptrend and the psychological level align. On the upside, $2,900 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) could act as the next resistance in case Gold rises to a new record high. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
It’s not an easy task to assign a direction for Gold in 2025 with high certainty. There are simply too many unknowns. Once Trump’s foreign and economic policies take shape, Gold’s outlook will become less cloudy. A strong Chinese economy, ongoing policy-easing by major central banks and a tense geopolitical environment could trigger another leg higher in XAU/USD prices.
If Trump’s policies fuel inflation and weigh on the global economy, Gold could come under pressure. Additional losses could be seen in case the geopolitical atmosphere becomes more favorable for risk trade.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
