Ed Ponsi, CTA
FXStreet Contributor
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Summary
Ed Ponsi discussed real-time, interactive technical and fundamental analysis of the Forex markets. View and analyze live charts and news, uncover opportunities for upcoming trades, and answer participant questions during webinar.
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EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1600, seems vulnerable near multi-month low
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1530 region, or the lowest level since November 2025, and lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back below the 1.1600 mark during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further.
GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3300 as geopolitical risks bolster US Dollar
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3310 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating conflict in the Middle East triggers a "flight to safety," supporting the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index reports, which are due later on Wednesday.
Gold sticks to intraday gains above $5,150; upside seems limited amid bullish USD
Gold preserves its modest intraday gains through the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades just above the $5,150 level, up around 1.30% for the day. Investors remain concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy amid an already uncertain environment.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple struggle for direction as consolidation persists
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple prices trade with a cautious tone at the time of writing on Wednesday as upside momentum continues to fade across the broader crypto market. BTC remains within a parallel channel, ETH struggles below key resistance, while XRP remains fragile within a descending channel. These top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization continue to struggle to establish a directional bias amid the consolidation phase.
When rates start driving the bus through a war zone
The volatility regime itself is also changing character. EM carry trades thrive in calm markets. They suffocate in environments that resemble Buckaroo Banzai trading conditions, where headlines move faster than models. That is exactly the world investors are now trying to recalibrate to. Euro rate volatility had been remarkably subdued even while equities were wobbling. That stability is now being questioned, and once volatility leaks into rates it rarely stays contained. Indeed, carry trades love calm seas. War turns the ocean into white water.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 4:
The US Dollar (USD) is drawing safe-haven support amid sharply escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting renewed investor concern.