Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group
OK traders, no need to make it complicated.
If the Dollar Index (DXC) is weak, we know that pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD will be strong while pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF should be weak. Simple correlation here – remember college statistics?
That is not enough though, we want to know which pairs are performing better or worse than the Dollar Index (DXC) as those will likely be the best pairs to trade.
So, if we simply look at the most recent leg lower in DXC (March 11th high), we can make the assumption that the pairs which outperformed would be the ones to track going forward.
DXC is off about .62% during this time, but NZD/USD is up 1.25% (long) while USD/CHF and USD/JPY are off .80% (short).
Conclusion: only focus on NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. By doing this you have turned all the other noise off and know to focus 110% on set-ups in those pairs. Now you have freed up your time and eliminated the other perceived possibilities and tail chasing. That is the critical difference between those that succeed and those that merely take part!
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1400 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1400 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The markets remain cautious as traders wait to see if US President Donald Trump’s administration reaches new trading agreements with partners.
GBP/USD alternates gains with losses in the low-1.3200s
Even as the dollar retreats, GBP/USD continues to linger in the 1.3220–1.3230 range, forfeiting much of its intraday rally from multi‑month highs near 1.3300. Softer UK inflation data on Wednesday seem to have capped Cable’s upside.
USD/JPY stages a recovery from multi-month low; upside seems limited
USD/JPY rebounds from the 141.60 area, or a seven-month trough touched during the Asian session on Thursday amid a modest USD bounce, though it lacks follow-through as trade-war woes continue to underpin the safe-haven JPY.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD consolidates near two-month top; remains below 0.6400 ahead of Aussie jobs data
AUD/USD oscillates below the 0.6400 mark as bulls pause for a breather after the recent sharp rally to a nearly two-month high touched the previous day and ahead of Australian jobs data. The RBA's cautious signal on further interest rate cuts, hopes for more stimulus from China, and Trump's temporary tariff reprieve acts as a tailwind for the Aussie.
USD/JPY stages a recovery from multi-month low; upside seems limited
USD/JPY rebounds from the 141.60 area, or a seven-month trough touched during the Asian session on Thursday amid a modest USD bounce, though it lacks follow-through as trade-war woes continue to underpin the safe-haven JPY.
Gold price extends the record run amid US tariffs-inspired rush to safety
Gold price builds on the previous day's breakout momentum above the $3,300 mark and touches a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Thursday. Tariff uncertainty, the escalating US-China trade war, global recession fears, and expectations of more aggressive Fed easing continue to support XAU/USD.
Ethereum face value-accrual risks due to data availability roadmap
Ethereum declined 1%, trading just below $1,600 in the early Asian session on Thursday, as Binance Research's latest report suggests that the data availability roadmap has been hampering its value accrual.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
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