Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
A different topic for us to look at today as we await the outcome of the US elections. Around 15% of daily spot FX trading is executed by algorithms. So, what is an algorithm? It is an automated trading program that places a trade according to a pre-defined set of instructions. These algorithms have developed from very simple rule based mechanisms to more advanced strategies that respond to different market conditions.
So, which are the main currencies are using EA’s?
In a Markets Committee survey where algorithm providers where asked which currencies EA’s were used with and what the size of the ticket was the following answered were given. Look at the results of the survey below. It is no surprise that around 94% of G7 currencies have clients using EA’s. This is for the major currencies like the USD, the EUR and the GBP etc. The average ticket size is around 31 million for this G7 block.
So, what are the consequences of using algorithms?
One hidden impact of their use has been a move towards market makers, often the bank, trying to match orders internally without passing them on to external venues. This trend has now raised some concerns with the Bank of International Settlements as if too much internal order sorting takes place then the quality of prices reported may be undermined. You could envisage a situation where the reported prices is not reflecting the true price. This could also cause the trading volumes on primary venues to drop. This matters because prices from primary trading venues such as Refinitiv and EBS are used as reference prices for other currency trading platforms and for bilateral trading.
Another impact to be aware of is the rise of ‘flash crashes’. These are sudden violent moves in markets and they appear to be accented by algorithmic trading. The most likely time for a flash crash is after the close of the US session and before the open of the Asian session, so this is something to be aware of if you are holding trades over that time.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds near 1.0850 after US PMI data
EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The mixed US PMI data limits the US Dollar's gains but the risk-averse market atmosphere doesn't allow the pair to gather recovery momentum in the American session
GBP/USD recovers above 1.2900 as USD struggles to gather strength
GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day above 1.2900 on Wednesday. The US Dollar struggles to build on Tuesday's gains following the mixed PMI data for July, allowing the pair to stay in positive territory in the second half of the day.
Japanese Yen remains stronger due to hawkish BoJ, US PMI eyed
The Japanese Yen appreciates due to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the BoJ’s policy stance ahead of next week's meeting. Japan's Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from a 50.0 reading; Services PMI surged to 53.9 from the prior 49.4. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates an increase to 93.6% odds of a 25-basis point rate cut in September.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds near 1.0850 after US PMI data
EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The mixed US PMI data limits the US Dollar's gains but the risk-averse market atmosphere doesn't allow the pair to gather recovery momentum in the American session
GBP/USD recovers above 1.2900 as USD struggles to gather strength
GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day above 1.2900 on Wednesday. The US Dollar struggles to build on Tuesday's gains following the mixed PMI data for July, allowing the pair to stay in positive territory in the second half of the day.
Gold retains modest gains ahead of key US headlines
Gold builds on Tuesday's recovery gains and trades above $2,420 on Wednesday. The pullback seen in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield and the US Dollar after US PMI data help XAU/USD stretch higher during the American trading hours.
Bitcoin price volatility expected amid speculation of Kamala Harris joining Bitcoin Conference with Donald Trump
Bitcoin price struggles around $66,000 on Wednesday. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced minor outflows on Tuesday, coinciding with the continued movement of Mt. Gox funds for repayment, which could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
July PMIs point to a very sluggish Eurozone recovery
This is another report that will not please the ECB. The July PMIs show that the eurozone economy is losing further momentum, as both the manufacturing and services sectors see activity slowing.
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