With so many speculating on when the fed will ultimately raise interst rates, Master trader Don Dawson prefers to follow the money! Back in September of 2014, the money said the big boys were betting on June for a hike, and things have changed! Don walks through his method for spotting what the institutions are doing, and also offers some insights into popular commodity futures such as grains and interest rate products.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains offered below 1.0800 post-US PCE
The US Dollar resumes its upside impulse on Friday, keeping EUR/USD under pressure and still below the key 1.0800 barrier after the release of February’s PCE inflation readings.
GBP/USD holds steady near 1.2950 after UK data
GBP/USD stays quiet and fluctuates near 1.2950 in the European session on Friday. Uncertainty over US President Trump's tariff plans weigh on risk mood and caps the pair's upside, even after February Retail Sales data from the UK came in better than expected.
USD/JPY stays weak below 151.00 after hot Tokyo CPI; US PCE awaited
USD/JPY keeps the selling pressure intact below 151.00 in late Asian trading on Friday. Hot Tokyo CPI figures and BoJ's March Summary of Opinions ramp up BoJ rate hike bets, supporting the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, tariff jitters undermine the US Dollat, bolstering the haven demand for the Yen. US PCE eyed.
Editors’ Picks
US PCE rose 2.5% YoY in February, matching consensus – LIVE
According to the US Department of Commerce, the annual headline PCE inflation rate in February was 2.5%, while core PCE inflation—which excludes food and energy—came in higher at 2.8%.
Gold keeps its bid bias intact, targets $3,100
Gold remains well bid around the $3,080 zone per troy ounce after US inflation figures met expectations in February, while US yields maintain a bearish stance across the curve.
EUR/USD remains offered below 1.0800 post-US PCE
The US Dollar resumes its upside impulse on Friday, keeping EUR/USD under pressure and still below the key 1.0800 barrier after the release of February’s PCE inflation readings.
Donald Trump’s tariff policies set to increase market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment
US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are expected to escalate market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, with the Kobeissi Letter’s post on X this week cautioning that while markets may view the April 2 tariffs as the "end of uncertainty," it anticipates increased volatility.
US: Trump's 'Liberation day' – What to expect?
Trump has so far enacted tariff changes that have lifted the trade-weighted average tariff rate on all US imports by around 5.5-6.0%-points. While re-rerouting of trade will decrease the effectiveness of tariffs over time, the current level is already close to the highest since the second world war.
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