Know the feeling?

  • You enter a trade and feel your heart racing as you watch the price move underwater.
  • You've made a mistake and have no choice but to crystalize a loss.
  • Suddenly price moves as you'd planned. You jump back in with a feeling of excitement and relief. You'll make that loss back and some in a minute.
  • But price moves against you for a second time and it's another loss.

You're feeling drained and frustrated. Agree?

In a minute you're going to learn:

  1. Why it happens.
  2. How you avoid it.
  3. And how you monetise it.

There's a part of your brain that can overpower rational thinking, logic and even the will to live

Psychologists James Olds and Peter Milner inserted an electrode into a region of a rat's brain, later called the pleasure centre.

The rat could self-administer an electrical current to the region by pressing a lever. The sensation was so pleasurable the rat endured pain of an electrified grid to get its charge.

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The rat ignored food and drink and kept pressing the lever until it died of exhaustion.

The scientific name for the pleasure centre is nucleus accumbens.

When stimulated, it releases the feel-good chemical dopamine, responsible for energy, motivation and drive. But it's the timing of its release that will intrigue you.

Surprise anticipation of a reward triggers the release of dopamine

In the early 90's, Wolfram Schultz, (Professor of Neuroscience at Cambridge University), and his team had a revelation.

To an unexpecting monkey, revealing a piece of apple sent the monkey's neurons wild. The feel-good chemical dopamine was signalling a reward to the brain.

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But the dopamine neurons stopped firing when the monkey realised the treat was on its way. The key to dopamine release is surprise.

A conflict occurs when you trade. It's your innate human tendency to find a pattern amongst the randomness of market behaviour. And in the struggle to predict when a reward will occur your dopamine neurons' level of activity increases.

Ever wondered why you took a trade for seemingly no reason? It turns out that stimulating your dopamine neurons is the root cause. You'll see why in a minute.

The MRI allowed us to see dopamine in action

In the first experiment, Dr Hans Breiter of Northwestern University and his team administered cocaine to a cocaine addict.

Where you see red and a dot of yellow - that's right on the nucleus accumbens - these colours represent the turning on of your reward system.

But you'll find it fascinating the release of dopamine - your core reward system in action - occurs in anticipation of receiving the cocaine. 

Chart

What other things besides drugs turn on this system?

The next experiment involved subjects playing games of monetary reward. None of Breiter's team predicted cocaine addicts anticipating a cocaine infusion looked exactly like healthy control subjects anticipating a monetary win.

Anticipation is fundamental to your experience of reward

When you trade, you repeat going through an experience of anticipation.
Like the rat, each trade is a jolt in electricity from your reward system.

This is all important because...

In his 1987 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett said: "If you've been in the [poker] game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy."

Every day the cocktail of looking for patterns, reward anticipation and the associated neurochemicals gets expressed by people buying and selling without knowing what's driving their actions.

Skilled traders know this and profit from it

Each trade sequence below consisted of a hypothesis for a long trade opportunity.

But preceding each long trade was a short trade to take advantage of the traders who jumped in prematurely and lost.

And whether it was yesterday:

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Or the day before:

Chart

Or even three years ago:

Chart

It occurs very frequently

But the bars on the charts don't tell you who the traders are buying or selling or what motivates them to do so. Correct?

So how can you tell?

First:

If we use driving a car as an analogy - it's quite a few reps before driving your car became unconscious. You know - like when you're suddenly shaken realising you can't recall the last 12 minutes of your journey because you were completely on autopilot - right?

This is why honing in on one playbook trade at a time is so important.

You see:
When you focus all your time on one playbook trade instead of a whole bunch of trades at once - that trade becomes unconscious much faster.

And once you're no longer preoccupied with processing the mechanics of the trade - your full suite of cognitive functions can pay attention to:

  1. Watching for all the pieces of your playbook trade to fit permitting you to take the trade.
  2. Simultaneously noticing all of the pattern-based mumbo jumbo your mind innately produces that's behind the voice that says "enter."
  3. Using your playbook trade as your defence against this voice (not a playbook trade? Can't enter)
  4. And noticing all of the traders unaware of how they are succumbing to entering into what will be a losing trade.

Second:
Ever been to an art gallery?
When you visit an art gallery, you'll see someone sit and stare at a painting for 20 minutes. What are they looking at?

They're looking at what you can only see if you are a painting aficionado. Right? And trading's the same.

Below is my trading station.

Chart

Guess what?

Almost every window is data for the same instrument. I'm looking at many different layers of the same onion. Makes sense?

Oh man that seems daunting

For all of the trades above I simultaneously walked a small group of traders through what the other traders in the market were thinking, what actions they would take, and how to trade amongst them. With sufficient immersion, they moved quickly to replicating the same concepts.

So it's possible to have someone show you how to do this in a way that enables you to get on top of it in a tight time frame if that's what you want to do.

Want more?

See events you can back in to trade in this webinar.


Forex and derivatives trading is a highly competitive and often extremely fast-paced environment. It only rewards individuals who attain the required level of skill and expertise to compete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss to unskilled and inexperienced players. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD faces next resistance near 1.1930

EUR/USD faces next resistance near 1.1930

EUR/USD has surrendered its earlier intraday advance on Thursday and is now hovering uncomfortably around the 1.1860 region amid modest gains in the US Dolla. Moving forward, markets are exoected to closely follow Friday’s release of US CPI data.
 

GBP/USD inching closer to 1.36

GBP/USD inching closer to 1.36

The Pound Sterling edged higher to 1.3640 on Thursday, recovering from an earlier pullback after stronger-than-expected US jobs data initially weighed on the pair. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% at its February 4 meeting in a narrow 5-4 vote split, with four members preferring a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%. 

USD/JPY sinks back below 153.00 as undaunted Yen continues to climb

USD/JPY sinks back below 153.00 as undaunted Yen continues to climb

The Japanese Yen strengthened past 153 per US Dollar on Thursday, rising for the fourth straight session after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive general election victory on February 8 gave her a clear mandate to pursue expansionary fiscal policy. Markets are betting that her agenda of increased government spending, tax cuts, and a two-year suspension of the 8% food sales tax will strengthen economic growth and provide the Bank of Japan with greater scope to normalize monetary policy through additional rate hikes. 


Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Some profit-taking should not be ruled out

AUD/USD: Some profit-taking should not be ruled out

AUD/USD has quickly faded Wednesday’s strong advance despite climbing to new multi-year highs around 0.7150 earlier on Thursday. The pair’s decline comes amid a marginal uptick in the US Dollar, while investors gear up for US CPI data and relevant Chinese releases on Friday.
 

EUR/USD faces next resistance near 1.1930

EUR/USD faces next resistance near 1.1930

EUR/USD has surrendered its earlier intraday advance on Thursday and is now hovering uncomfortably around the 1.1860 region amid modest gains in the US Dolla. Moving forward, markets are exoected to closely follow Friday’s release of US CPI data.
 

Gold falls to near $4,900 as selling pressure intensifies

Gold falls to near $4,900 as selling pressure intensifies

Gold price faces some selling pressure around $4,910 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal tumbles over 3.50% on the day, with algorithmic traders appearing to amplify the precious metal’s sudden drop. Traders will closely monitor the release of the US Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, which will be released later on Friday. 

Ethereum investors face huge unrealized losses following price slump

Ethereum investors face huge unrealized losses following price slump

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds flipped negative again on Wednesday after recording net outflows of $129.1 million, reversing mild inflows seen at the beginning of the week, per SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FETH was responsible for more than half of withdrawals, posting outflows of $67 million.

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.

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