Brandon Wendell, CMT
Brandon Wendell
Most traders are familiar with moving averages. They are a useful technical tool for identifying the direction and strength of a trend. However, many traders overlook a very useful characteristic of price that allows us to identify a trading opportunity using moving averages. That characteristic is elasticity.
Prices are elastic. They will move away from an average and then snap back. They repeat this process in a trend over and over, stretching away from that average before returning. In a trend, however, the average will slowly move in the direction of the trend thus making the price cover less distance when retracing.
Imagine a rubber band. If you stretch the band slightly, it will snap back to its original shape. If you stretch the band further, you will have a more violent snap back to the original shape. Price acts in a similar manner. If you observe price stretching away from an average, it will snap back as soon as it strikes a level of supply or demand. Stretch price further, such as a parabolic move, and you will often experience a stronger return.
This elasticity is due to the actions and emotions of the people trading and investing in the stock/commodity/index/currency. It works the same on any security. If you go to the store and your favorite product is marked down on sale, you are more likely to buy it or even buy more of it. If inflation caused the price of the product to rise, you may buy less of it, not buy it at all, or look for a substitute to buy.
The same occurs with securities. When price is below the average price, it is undervalued and a bargain. If it moves to an extreme away from the average then it becomes irresistible to traders and investors who will rush in to buy it and send the price higher. The traders will stop buying when it reaches the average price since it is no longer a bargain. However, those who missed out on the initial buying spree may try to join and will push prices above the average. If prices extend too far above an average, then the price is overvalued and no one will want to buy it. Nervous holders of the security will start to sell and cause prices to drop to… you guessed it, the average.
In the chart, I have used a simple moving average to demonstrate this effect. Note how price will move away from the average and then return after reaching extremes. We can locate high probability long and short entries when this is combined with support and resistance. Typically, when price stretches away from the average, it will extend until it reaches a supply or demand level. These are levels where traders caused the price to reverse in the past. The over or undervalued nature of price being far from the average, added to the fact that the price has reached a level where it turned previously will usually lead traders to take that action again.
This gives us the opportunity to predict where traders will take action and more importantly, where we can profit by acting sooner. There are some important rules that you must keep in mind when trading. Always be mindful of the trend and do not trade against it. For instance, you shouldn’t buy in downtrends. Look to short or close shorts until you have confirmed the trend is reversing. You shouldn’t short in up-trends. Go long or exit according to your analysis. Learning to read price and its relationship to averages is a valuable skill that can be used to trade successfully in any market.
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820
EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above
GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election
USD/JPY is back in the red below 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen recovers ground against the US Dollar amid some profit-taking ahead of Japan's snap general election on Sunday. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be released later on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates Premium
The EUR/USD pair lost additional ground in the first week of February, settling at around 1.1820. The reversal lost momentum after the pair peaked at 1.2082 in January, its highest since mid-2021.
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space Premium
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling tests key support ahead of a big week Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) changed course against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD giving up nearly 200 pips in a dramatic correction.
Bitcoin: The worst may be behind us
Bitcoin (BTC) price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.
Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium
The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.
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