Starts and permits both came in well below consensus estimates, with revisions negative.

Lower mortgage rates have not helped new home construction. Both starts and permits are not only well below the Econoday consensus range, but also lower than the lowest estimates.

Housing starts came in far below expectations in March, at a 1.139 million annual rate which is nearly 30,000 below Econoday's consensus range. And permits aren't any better, at a 1.269 million rate and nearly 20,000 below the low estimate.  

The trend is clearly downward with starts the weakest since May 2017 and permits the weakest since August last year. Year-on-year rates are minus 14.2 percent for starts and minus 7.8 percent for permits. Goods news in the report is scarce but does include a welcome 11.9 percent monthly jump in single-family completions at a 938,000 rate for a new home sales market that needs fresh supply. 

But another key reading, permits for single-family homes, fell 1.1 percent in March and are down 5.1 percent year-on-year. Low mortgage rates may be helping purchase applications but have yet to trigger much response from home builders. 

However strong the jobs market may be, residential investment was the consistent tail ender in last year's GPD statistics and doesn't look like it will be improving in the first quarter. Regional data show a March uptick for starts and permits in the West, where home prices have completely flattened, though year-on-year rates here remain deeply negative. All regions in fact are in the negative year-on-year columns whether for starts or permits.

New Residential Construction

Let's tune into the New Residential Construction report for more details.

  • Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,269,000. This is 1.7 percent below the revised February rate of 1,291,000 and is 7.8 percent below the March 2018 rate of 1,377,000. 
  • This is 1.7 percent below the revised February rate of 1,291,000 and is 7.8 percent below the March 2018 rate of 1,377,000. 
  • Single‐family authorizations in March were at a rate of 808,000; this is 1.1 percent below the revised February figure of 817,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 425,000 in March. 

Housing Starts 

  • Privately‐owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. This is 0.3 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,142,000 and is 14.2 percent below the March 2018 rate of 1,327,000. 
  • Single‐family housing starts in March were at a rate of 785,000; this is 0.4 percent below the revised February figure of 788,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 337,000. 

Housing Completions 

  • Privately‐owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,313,000. 
  • This is 1.9 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,338,000, but is 6.8 percent  above the March 2018 rate of 1,229,000. 
  • Single‐family housing completions in March were at a rate of 938,000; this is 11.9 percent above the revised February rate of 838,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 364,000.

Starts, Permits, Completions 

Synopsis

  • Compared to a year ago, starts are down 14.2%, permits are down 7.8%, and completions are up 6.8%. 
  • Compared to February, starts are down 0.3%, permits are down 1.7%, and completions are up1.9% 

Numbers are volatile, but the data strongly suggests that builders are finishing homes at close to the peak rate, but not starting new ones.


This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Powell and the NFP will put the rally to the test

EUR/USD: Powell and the NFP will put the rally to the test

EUR/USD gathered extra steam and advanced to multi-month peaks near 1.1150, although the move fizzled out somewhat as the NA session drew to a close on Thursday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD off highs, remains well bid near 1.3100

GBP/USD off highs, remains well bid near 1.3100

GBP/USD now partially sets aside its earlier advance in favour of fresh peaks just north of the 1.3200 mark, challenging the 1.3100 neighborhood on the back of a tepid bounce from recent multi-month lows in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Japanese Yen retains bullish bias against USD amid heightened safe-haven demand

Japanese Yen retains bullish bias against USD amid heightened safe-haven demand

The Japanese Yen caught aggressive bids during the Asian session on Thursday amid the global flight to safety, triggered by US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Investors grew increasingly concerned that the move could reshape the global trading system and impact negatively on the world economy, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

USD/JPY News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Extra gains need to clear 0.6400

AUD/USD: Extra gains need to clear 0.6400

AUD/USD rose for the third day in a row, approaching the key 0.6400 resistance on the back of the acute pullback in the US Dollar amid mounting recession concerns and global trade war fear.

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD: Powell and the NFP will put the rally to the test

EUR/USD: Powell and the NFP will put the rally to the test

EUR/USD gathered extra steam and advanced to multi-month peaks near 1.1150, although the move fizzled out somewhat as the NA session drew to a close on Thursday.

EUR/USD News
Gold looks offered near $3,100

Gold looks offered near $3,100

Prices of Gold remain on the defensive on Thursday, hovering around the $3,100 region per troy ounce and retreating from earlier all-time peaks near the $3,170 level, all against the backdrop of investors' assessment of "Liberation Day".

Gold News
Interoperability protocol hyperlane reveals airdrop details

Interoperability protocol hyperlane reveals airdrop details

The team behind interoperability protocol Hyperlane shared their upcoming token airdrop plans happening at the end of the month. The airdrop will occur on April 22, and users can check their eligibility to receive $HYPER tokens via a portal provided by the Hyperlane Foundation by April 13, the team shared in a press release with CoinDesk.

Read more
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way

United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs. 

Read more

RECOMMENDED LESSONS

7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams

The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?

What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make

Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Strategy

Money Management

Psychology

Best Brokers of 2025