FXStreet Expert Contributor
FXStreet
Each month in Munich, the IFO Institute for Economic Research releases the IFO business climate survey. This is one of the most important economic figures for many Forex traders. The IFO Report is a figure that measures the results of 7,000 questionnaires completed by major German companies. The report measures the sentiment of the current and near future business climates. German companies have three options for responses when filling out the current business climate section of this survey; Good, Satisfactory, and Poor. For the near term climate questionnaire the firms have the following three options; Most Favorable, Unchanged, and More Unfavorable.
Basic Categories of the IFO Report:
Manufacturing
Construction
Whole sale
Retail sale
Understanding the Statistic:
The baseline of the IFO report is 100 points, and each month the number can fluctuate by 100 points above or below this baseline figure.
- An IFO report reading of 100 shows that the business climate has remained neutral.
- An IFO report reading above 100 means that the business climate has become healthier. The higher the number, the healthier the business climate.
- A strong economy might lead to inflationary pressure, which will in turn cause the ECB to tighten the interest rate. In this scenario, a tighter interest rate will lead to an appreciation of the Euro.
- An IFO report reading that falls below 100 signifies an unfavorable business climate which could lead to an economic slowdown or recession. To keep away from a recession, the ECB may decide to cut interest rates, which will in turn lead to a depreciating Euro.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0400 ahead of US inflation data
EUR/USD struggles to stage a rebound on Friday and continues to trade below 1.0400 following Wednesday's sharp decline that was caused by the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone. Investors await November PCE inflation data from the US.
GBP/USD touches fresh multi-month low below 1.2500
GBP/USD recovers to the 1.2500 area after touching its lowest level since May near 1.2470. The pair stays on the back foot after the Fed and the BoE policy announcements this week pointed to a potentially diverging policy outlook.
Japanese Yen clings to intraday gains; USD/JPY retreats further from multi-month peak
The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers after a stronger-than-expected Japan’s National CPI. A weaker risk tone and retreating US bond yields also lend support to the lower-yielding JPY. The Fed’s hawkish shift favors the USD and should act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0400 ahead of US inflation data
EUR/USD struggles to stage a rebound on Friday and continues to trade below 1.0400 following Wednesday's sharp decline that was caused by the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone. Investors await November PCE inflation data from the US.
GBP/USD touches fresh multi-month low below 1.2500
GBP/USD recovers to the 1.2500 area after touching its lowest level since May near 1.2470. The pair stays on the back foot after the Fed and the BoE policy announcements this week pointed to a potentially diverging policy outlook.
Gold price holds steady around $2,600; upside potential seems limited
Gold price attracts some haven flows amid the looming risk of a US government shutdown and trades near $2,600. The global flight to safety-led pullback in the US bond yields further benefits the XAU/USD. The Fed’s hawkish stance acts as a tailwind for the USD and should cap any further upside.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple crash, wiping $1.17 billion from the market
Bitcoin price trades below $98,000 on Friday after declining more than 6% this week. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps, closing below their key support and declining 12% and 4.5%, respectively, this week.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
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