Alex Spiroglou, CFTe, DipTA (ATAA)
Independent Analyst
Let’s talk about Euro FX futures and what the Commitment of Traders (CoT) data is telling us.
If you’re not familiar, CoT data is a weekly report from the CFTC that shows how different groups—like commercials (big businesses that hedge), speculators, and small traders—are positioned in the futures markets. It’s a goldmine for spotting trends before they happen.
On the chart, you’ll notice the typical commercial behavior: they buy when prices are weak and sell when prices are strong. Right now, their net position (futures + options) is around 18.6K contracts—about the same level as September 2022, which, by the way, preceded a significant rally.
What’s even more exciting? Our proprietary system just fired off a CoT signal last Friday! These aren’t mechanical trade entries but more like flashing lights telling you to shift focus to the daily chart and scout for setups there. Think of it as your heads-up alert.
That said, the signal gets canceled if prices dip below 1.03405—so keep that in mind.
Tomorrow, we’ll dive into the daily chart and look for actionable ideas. Make sure to check back for that breakdown. Stay tuned!
S&P 500 total return composition breakdown
Interesting table by "Topdown Charts".
Their comment was even more interesting...
"Stockmarket return drivers:
-dividends = consistent but declining
-earnings = important but variable
-valuations = best friend or worst enemy!
Focus on earnings and dividends for long-term growth, monitor valuations for risk and cyclical opportunity.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850
EUR/USD remains in the negative territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1870 during the Asian hours on Friday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming steady momentum. RSI has eased but remains above 50, indicating momentum remains constructive for the bulls.
GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3600 vs. USD; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus
The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive through the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 1.3600 mark as traders await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets.
USD/JPY rebounds above 153.00 ahead of US inflation data
USD/JPY stages a comeback and regains 153.00 in the Asian session, snapping a four-day losing streak amid some repositioning ahead of the US CPI report. However, expectations that Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi could be more fiscally responsible, along with bets that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path and the risk-off mood, could support the safe-haven Japanese Yen, capping the pair's upside.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850
EUR/USD remains in the negative territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1870 during the Asian hours on Friday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming steady momentum. RSI has eased but remains above 50, indicating momentum remains constructive for the bulls.
Gold recovers swiftly from weekly low, climbs back closer to $5,000 ahead of US CPI
Gold regains positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and recovers a part of the previous day's heavy losses to the $4,878-4,877 region, or the weekly low. The commodity has now moved back closer to the $5,000 psychological mark as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figures for more cues about the Federal Reserve's policy path.
GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3600 vs. USD; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus
The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive through the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 1.3600 mark as traders await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets.
Solana: Mixed market sentiment caps recovery
Solana is trading at $79 as of Friday, following a correction of over 9% so far this week. On-chain and derivatives data indicates mixed sentiment among traders, further limiting the chances of a price recovery.
A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness
Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.
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