XRP might find bullishness to hit $0.60 as chances of SEC winning the lawsuit reduce to 3%

XRP price is recovering slowly and steadily, rising nearly 8% in the last week.
Ripple proponent Bill Morgan countered Jeremy Hogan's prediction of the SEC winning the appeal.
A letter sent by the SEC to Judge Torres also hinted at a potential settlement by November 9.

XRP price has been making its way up the daily chart, undoing the losses witnessed in the past few weeks, and the bullishness it is receiving from the market might propel it towards a critical target.

Along with this, Ripple is expected to see some positive developments come November, which could also include the conclusion to the Ripple-SEC lawsuit saga that started nearly three years ago.

Ripple and SEC to settle next month

Ripple and the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) have been fighting it out in court since December 2020. The SEC filed the lawsuit against Ripple for allegedly violating securities laws, but District Court Judge Analisa Torres this year ruled in favor of the payment processor by giving it a partial win.

The SEC took another hit after its appeal of the decision was later denied by Judge Torres. Then last Thursday, the case against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen was dismissed with prejudice. November 9 is now the most important date for investors. That is when the regulator intends to meet and confer with Ripple, according to a letter sent by the SEC to Judge Torres.

While there is no confirmation from either entity, enthusiasts expect this meeting to result in a settlement of the lawsuit.

This would prove to be beneficial for the SEC as it is expected to lose the lawsuit regardless. Based on statistics from the US Court of Appeals from 2011 to 2015, the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning on appeal, according to lawyer Jeremy Hogan.

Ripple proponent Bill Morgan reduced these chances to 3%, saying,

"I don't see any obvious appellable error other than in Ripple's favor in respect of ODL sales[,] which don't meet at least two prongs of the Howey test. The SEC's prospects of success on appeal are very slim and I feel generous today[,] so I am giving it [a] 3% chance of success on appeal.

Thus, considering these conditions, XRP's price has a bullish potential in November.

XRP price uptick in the cards

XRP price has risen by over 8% in the last week, trading at $0.52 at the time of writing. This has brought the altcoin closer to testing the barrier at $0.54, which has been acting as resistance since mid-August.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also suggesting extended bullishness, given its presence above the neutral line at 50.0. This hints at a potential breach of $0.54, which could send the XRP price to $0.60.

XRP/USD 1-day chart

However, in the event that the breach fails, the altcoin could fall back down to test the support at $0.50. A break there would invalidate the bearish thesis. XRP price would have another shot at recovery should it bounce off $0.47.

Cryptocurrency prices FAQs

How do new token launches or listings affect cryptocurrency prices?

Token launches like Arbitrum’s ARB airdrop and Optimism OP influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset.

How do hacks affect cryptocurrency prices?

A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets.

How do macroeconomic releases and events affect cryptocurrency prices?

Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence risk assets like Bitcoin, mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.

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