XRP keeps rally hope alive as price holds 38.2% Fibonacci level, DOGE uptrend ends

• The XRP price is holding the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January surge.

• DOGE has dropped below the 61.8% retracement, signaling an end of the dogecoin rally. 

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP is down but not out, whereas the outlook for dogecoin (DOGE) appears grim, based on an analysis of Fibonacci retracement levels.

XRP reached a peak of $3.40 in mid-January and has since entered a downtrend, with the price dropping 25% this month to $2.28, according to data from TradingView and CoinDesk.

While the sell-off has been steep, it corresponds to only a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that started at Nov. 4's low of 49.5 cents through the Jan. 16 high of $3.40. A retracement is a drop from the principal trend.

That's positive news for XRP bulls, as that level, along with the 50% and 61.8% ratios, indicates potential areas for the price to resume its previous trend, according to the CME's explainer.

Trends often pull back to these levels before initiating larger rallies. That means XRP bulls have reason to be optimistic about potential gains ahead.

Moreover, there has been some positive news flow regarding XRP recently. On Monday, ETF.com said Brazil's securities regulator had registered the first spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) as the Hashdex Nasdaq XRP Fund entered a so-called pre-operational phase with Brazil's Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM).

U.S. regulators are also reviewing applications for XRP ETFs. A potential approval could accelerate institutional demand for XRP if the uptake of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) ETFs is any guide.

XRP's daily chart with Fibonacci retracements. (CoinDesk/TradingView)

The Fibonacci series comprises adding the two preceding numbers to find the next number. The sequence, which has been of interest to mathematicians and scientists for centuries, occurs in the following manner: 1, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, and so on. The ratio of any number to the next higher number is close to 0.618 and if you divide any number in the sequence by the one two spaces to the right, you get 38.2.

Traders use these ratios and the 50% level to predict how far an asset might retrace the primary trend, in XRP's case, the bull run.

It's a different story for dogecoin because a primary trend is considered to have ended when a retracement exceeds the 61.8% level.

The world's largest meme cryptocurrency by market value has dropped below 21 cents, retracing more than 70% of the rally marked by October lows near 10 cents and a high of 48.4 cents in December.

DOGE has dropped below the 61.8% Fib, ending the uptrend. (CoinDesk/TradingView) 

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