Jonathan Morgan
Independent Analyst
- XLM price is unable to break above crucial Ichimoku resistance levels.
- Daily oscillators show bearish price action likely to continue.
- XLM under threat from moving below $0.30
XLM price is currently trading in the worst area within the Ichimoku system: inside the Cloud. The Cloud represents indecision, volatility, and whipsaws and it is the opposite of where any bull wants to be.
XLM price fails to breakout and may return to trading in the $0.20 value area
XLM price has made many attempts over the last nine trading days to breakout higher. Since entering the Cloud on September 10th, the top (Senkou Span A) has acted as the primary resistance level for XLM, with all daily closes within those nine days occurring below Senkou Span A. The past three days have seen an increase in the resistance for XLM, with the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen now sharing the same value area as Senkou Span A at $0.36. Another factor weighing on further downside pressure is the Lagging Span, which is below the candlesticks and shows no signs of moving higher.
XLM/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart
The Relative Strength Index has essentially created a bear flag and the RSI has been rejected against the first oversold condition in a bull market (50). With the Relative Strength Index facing rejection at 50, XLM is likely to see a move south very soon.
However, XLM price surprise bears. Given the increased volatility of the cryptocurrency market during September, it would not be out of the ordinary for XLM price to face a sudden and unexpected spike higher. Bulls will take the lead if they can push XLM to a close above the Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Senkou Span A while the Lagging Span is above the candlesticks. For that bullish scenario to play out, XLM would need to return to $0.39.
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