- The total short interest in fifteen mining companies is nearing $2 billion as Bitcoin halving approaches.
- Miners could dump up to $5 billion worth of BTC post-halving.
- Halving could lead to miners leveraging more renewable sources.
Bitcoin (BTC) miners are gearing up for the fourth BTC halving event, less than four days away. With the halving set to slash mining rewards by 50%, the stock price of several mining companies has declined, and the entire crypto market may face much more decline as these companies could dump their BTC stash in the market.
Read more: Bitcoin price unphased as Fed’s hope for a pivot gets overwhelmed
Miners prepare for Bitcoin's fourth halving
Bitcoin halving is an event that sees the mining rewards of validating blocks in the Bitcoin blockchain being slashed by 50%. The fourth cycle of the halving event, which occurs after every 210,000 BTC blocks are added to the Bitcoin blockchain — roughly every four years — is less than four days away. The general sentiment around Bitcoin halving is that prices would increase as its issuance race declines, making Bitcoin deflationary and increasingly scarce over time.
As the larger market is bracing for a potential price rally in the coming months, miners are facing the headache of seeing declining rewards while running with the same or even higher operational costs. During previous halving events, most miners had to close shop as they couldn't maintain operating with reduced revenue.
Although a potential price increase is expected to offset the reduction in mining rewards, Bitcoin's historical price data shows prices usually stagnate three to four months post-halving before picking up again. This may cause these miners to experience huge losses within the time frame.
Also read: Bitcoin price delays pre-halving rally as US and China battle for BTC supremacy ahead of halving
As a result, investors are shorting the stocks of several mining companies. According to data from S3 Partners LLC, the total short interest in fifteen Bitcoin mining companies reached almost $2 billion on April 8. The companies include Marathon, CleanSpark, Cipher, Hive and Bit Digital.
Top miners' expansion moves may see them dump BTC in the market
However, according to Bernstein and Glassnode data, miners have enjoyed a significant boost in revenue as Bitcoin reached an all-time high in March. This is the first time Bitcoin has reached an all-time high pre-halving, and it may serve as a "solid cushion" to the expected short-term declining revenues. However, small mining operations may suffer regardless.
Bernstein noted the possibility of mergers or buyouts based on insights from an interview with the CEOs of five top mining companies - Marathon, CleanSpark, Riot, Hut 8 and Cipher Mining. Some of these mining firms are expanding operations and could double their computing power by the year's end, causing them to earn almost the same amount of BTC as before the halving.
However, the funds fueling this expansion may have come from these miners selling their BTC holdings at recent highs, hence the recent market crash. Markus Thielen of 10x Research calculated that Bitcoin miners could dump $5 billion worth of BTC. He also stated, "The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months — as it has done following past halvings." And considering Bitcoin's high correlation with the entire crypto market, altcoins may suffer more from the impact of such sales, said Thielen.
Read more: BRC-20 tokens to watch out for Bitcoin halving
Other community members expect miners to focus on more renewable sources after the halving as they are cheaper. This may mean a possible migration to locations where renewable energy sources are easier to access. As a result, Bitcoin's carbon footprint may decline further.
Bitcoin is trading at $63,049 on Tuesday, with the halving set to occur around April 19 or 20.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
US presidential election outcome could shape the future of crypto
US citizens will go to the polls to elect a new president on November 5, and their choice could be key for the future of the crypto industry and thus the price outlook for Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitcoin ETFs beat Gold ETFs with 65% gain since launch
Bitcoin ETFs have reshaped the digital asset investment landscape since their approval in January. Their total assets under management climbed over $70 billion during the weekend, placing them ahead of other investment products, including gold.
XRP eyes 10% rally amid relisting across crypto exchanges and growing institutional demand
Ripple's XRP is trading at $0.5050 up slightly by 0.2% in the past 24 hours as it struggles to sustain a move above a key symmetry triangle resistance. Meanwhile, in its recently released Q3 report, Ripple noted the rising listing and relisting of XRP across crypto exchanges and global platforms.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH struggles below $2,500 amid State of Michigan pension fund investment in ETH ETF
Ethereum is trading near $2,420, down about 1% on Monday, but could bounce off a key descending trendline close to the $2,258 historically high demand zone. Meanwhile, the State of Michigan pension fund revealed an investment of $11 million in ETH exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin: New all-time high at $78,900 looks feasible
Bitcoin price declines over 2% this week, but the bounce from a key technical level on the weekly chart signals chances of hitting a new all-time high in the short term. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $596 million in inflows until Thursday despite the increased profit-taking activity.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.