- Several analysts have shared their odds for a potential Solana ETF following 21Shares and VanEck's filings.
- Top industry voices suggest that a change in the White House is paramount for Solana ETF approval.
- Solana is down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours.
Solana (SOL) shed 5% of its value on Friday as top industry voices aired their views on the odds of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Solana ETF. This follows asset managers VanEck and 21Shares filing S-1 registration statements for their respective spot SOL ETFs.
Crypto experts share their thoughts on potential Solana ETF approval
Solana was the center topic of discussion across several cohorts in the crypto community on Friday following VanEck and 21Shares' recent filing for a spot Solana ETF. The increased attention surrounding Solana is evidenced by a hike in its social volume, as seen in the chart below.
 [20.04.30, 28 Jun, 2024]-638552024977020193.png)
SOL Social Volume
Discussions and predictions from top industry voices about the odds of SOL ETF approval seem to be driving the social volume surge.
Considering that crypto ETFs have become a major subject among investment firms following the high volumes seen in Bitcoin ETFs over the last six months, introducing a Solana ETF may solidify the token's growing market influence.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that SOL ETFs won't be approved this year may only be possible if the current SEC administration and the White House see a change after the November presidential election.
"The odds of a Solana ETF being approved in next 12mo are tied at the hip to the odds of a change in POTUS and safe to say the chances of both are higher today then they were yesterday.. Altho we not giving any exact number on this yet. Way too early," he said
In line with Balchunas's prediction, Scott Johnsson, General Partner at Van Buren Capital, speculated that the SOL ETF move might affect the upcoming elections, with a "60+% chance of a new admin and/or the current admin getting scared straight through this election that they loosen things considerably."
Balchunas added that the major limitation to a Solana ETF approval would likely stem from a lack of Solana futures in the US.
Adam Cochran, partner at crypto venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, stated that VanEck's and, by extension, 21Shares' move may be "reckless” as SOL's futures volume in international exchanges does not meet the SEC's requirements. Other analysts have stated that the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs form a pattern that begins with the approval of a crypto futures ETF and eventually culminates in the approval of its spot ETF counterpart.
In addition, the SEC previously classified SOL as a security in at least two separate lawsuits. This may dampen the chances of its ETF approval.
Meanwhile, SOL is down by almost 5% in the past 24 hours as FOMO from VanEck's initial filings yesterday seems to have faded. An earlier report based on Santiment data predicted that Solana could see a correction due to the social volume spike that accompanied its rise on Thursday.
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.
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